The PSC would win the elections to the Parliament again by obtaining between 39 and 42 seats, followed by JxCat, which would obtain between 30 and 32 deputies and ERC, which would obtain between 20 and 21, according to the latest barometer prepared by the Center for Studies of Opinion (CEO) of the Generalitat of Catalonia.
The survey, prepared by the company GESOP based on interviews with 2,000 people over 18 years of age, was carried out between October 11 and November 14 of this year, a period in which the resignation of the former spokesperson for Add Íñigo Errejón and DANA in Valencia.
In third position would be the PPC, with between 15 and 16 seats, followed by Vox (10-11), Comuns-Sumar (6-7), the CUP (5-6) and the far-right Aliança Catalana, which would rise to 6 or 7 seats.
The Catalan socialists would also win the general elections in Catalonia, by obtaining between 18 and 21 deputies in Congress, followed by JxCat, which would range between 5 and 8 seats, ERC (5-7) and the PPC (5-8).
The data projected by the CEO barometer does not represent a large variation with respect to the results of the last parliamentary elections on May 12, 2024, in which the PSC obtained 42 seats, followed by JxCat, with 35.
The variation shown in the survey with respect to the 12M elections would be a drop in support for JxCatwhich would go to Aliança Catalana and the CUP, two parties that usually collect the “protest vote” of the independence movement, as explained by the CEO’s director, Joan Rodríguez, in a press conference this Wednesday.
The PSC would also register a slight drop of 0.6%, which would mean either repeating the results of 12M or falling to 39 seats due to the loss of a couple of deputies who won by a few votes in some constituencies. Rodríguez added.
In any case, the data have been taken without taking into account a short-term electoral call, which could generate more mobilization in PSC voters or an “activation” of JxCat voters.
Salvaldor Illa, the highest-rated politician
The CEO barometer also places the president of the Generalitat, Salvador Illaas the best-rated Catalan political leader, achieving an average 4.9, followed by former president Pere Aragonès, with a 4.5, and the parliamentary leader of the Comuns, Jéssica Albiach, with a 4.3.
The leader of JxCat, Carles Puigdemontis the Catalan politician who registers a higher degree of knowledge, since 98% of Catalans claim to know who he is, although his rating is 3.5.
However, Salvador Illa is preferred by Catalans to be the president of the Generalitat (18%), followed by Puigdemont (11%) and Oriol Junqueras (3%), although 32% of those surveyed responded that they did not prefer any of them.
With regard to political leaders at the state level, the President of the Government, Pedro Sanchezis the best rated by Catalans, with a 4.4, followed by the vice president of the Government Yolanda Diaz with a 4.1. The two are above the two leaders of right-wing parties, Alberto Núñez Feijóowhich gets a 2.3, and Santiago Abascalwith a 1.5.
Along these lines, Sánchez is the favorite of 28% of Catalans to be the president of the Government, while Feijóo and Díaz both obtain 3%. Out of party sympathy, 40% of JxCat voters prefer Sánchez as president, who is also the favorite among those of ERC.
54% of Catalans are against independence
54% of Catalans oppose the independence of Catalonia, fourteen points above those who are in favor, according to the barometer.
The percentage of rejection of independence remains stable with respect to previous barometers, since in June 2022 it stood at 52%, in the same way as occurs with the independencewhich repeats the 40% support it registered in the June survey.
As Joan Rodríguez explained, the data show that support for independence is experiencing “a slow decline” that “is reaching its bottom.”
In line with the survey, 34% of Catalans have the preferred option for Catalonia to be an autonomous community within Spain, while 30% opt for a independent state.
However, within the group of independentists, 23% would be in favor of a federal State within Spain or an autonomous community.
According to the survey, almost eight out of ten Catalans have not changed their position regarding independence (77%), while 21% have changed their opinion. Specifically, 46% of Catalans who have changed their opinion regarding independence have done so since 2017, while 38% did so before.
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