Good news for the consumer. After the strong increases recorded in recent years, the price of olive oil plummets in the countryside, returning to 5 euros per kilo for the first time since April 2023.
According to Infoliva data, the price of extra virgin olive oil has fallen 37% from the highs reached in January and is thus reduced from 8.7 to 5.5 euros; Virgin oil drops even more from 8.45 to 5 euros, 41%, and that of lampante a similar percentage, from 8.35 also to 5 euros.
Despite the VAT increase on October 1, the price of extra virgin olive oil, which almost tripled its price, reaching over 12 euros per liter, is falling in practically all supermarket chains. Mercadona, leader in the sector with a market share of 27%, has, for example, reduced the price of its own brand Hacendado extra virgin olive oil to 8.85 euros and that of virgin oil to 7.75. But the 3-liter bottles of intense oil can now be found for 19.95 euros, so you can buy a liter for 6.75 euros, something that has not been seen for a long time. In the sector, they point out that it is normal for oil to drop in price in stores to around 5 euros in the coming months.
Although It seems difficult to reduce it below that threshold, Since it would not allow production costs to be covered, the objective is that little by little consumption can recover after the sharp falls recorded and that olive oil regains its throne in Spanish homes compared to seeds, such as sunflower.
Optimistic forecasts
Everything also indicates that the price will continue to fall because production expectations for the new campaign that began in October are very positive. The forecasts thus indicate that 1.4 million tons could be reached, which will have a direct impact on prices. In Spain, the average production of olive oil stands at 1.2 million tons per year. In the last two campaigns, the drought caused a sharp drop in production, dropping in 2022/2023 to a minimum of 664,033. In the last one, closed a month ago, the situation has however begun to change and thanks to more favorable weather, especially due to the rains recorded in spring, production has stood at 851,000 tons, 11.2% above forecasts but still well below the annual average.
The only risk that exists now, according to the sector, is the lack of stock for the link between one campaign and another. The 2024-2025 campaign began with only 186,304 tons initially, which represents the lowest stock since 2015 and the sector warns that Due to the DANA that has devastated the southeast of Spain, there are areas where the olives have not been harvested. Last week, the managing director of Oleostepa, Álvaro Olavarría, warned during an Olive Grove Day organized by Asaja that “the packaging industry only has oil for 30 days, so if the olives cannot be picked, it is possible that the prices rise again.”
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