Le Pen’s party would make a great leap and would obtain between 75 and 105 seats, an abysmal difference compared to the current six deputies
The party of Emmanuel Macron, who was re-elected president of France on Sunday with 58.5% of the vote after five years in the Elysee Palace, would obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, according to a poll by Harris Interactive for the magazine ‘Challenges’ ahead of the legislative elections that will take place on June 12 and 19. As soon as he announced his victory, the battle for the next elections began last Sunday. In two rounds, the citizens will elect their 577 deputies to the National Assembly in another 577 constituencies for the next five years.
The far-left leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the third most voted candidate in the first round, proposes the June legislative elections as “a third round of the presidential elections.” In this sense, he advocates a union of the left-wing parties for the elections in a “popular union” against Macron and Le Pen.
Mélenchon is convinced that if the leftist parties unite, they could obtain a majority in the National Assembly. This would force the president to elect him prime minister, according to the calculations of the leader of the La France Insumisa party, the French Podemos.
On the other hand, the far-right Éric Zemmour, eliminated in the first round, advocates “a union of the right” in the face of the legislative elections to defeat Macron and the “Islamo-left” Mélenchon. On the other hand, in National Regroupment, Marine Le Pen’s party, they prefer to speak of a “union of patriots”, considering that the left-right division has been overcome. In this context, the prospect of an agreement between Zemmour’s party and Le Pen’s for the next elections is getting further and further away.
If legislative elections were held today in France, the distribution of seats in the National Assembly would be very different than it is today. These elections will be important because they will determine the room for maneuver that Macron will have to preside over France and carry out his reforms.
The results may vary depending on who the candidates are in each constituency and also on possible alliances between the parties ahead of the second round. Legislative elections traditionally usually give the president a majority, since they are now held two months after the presidential ones.
In the absence of alliances, La República en Marcha, Macron’s party, would obtain between 328 and 368 seats, compared to the current 267. It would achieve an absolute majority, according to the Harris Interactive poll. The second parliamentary force in the National Assembly would be the National Regroupment, that of Marine Le Pen, which would make a great leap and obtain between 75 and 105 seats. Currently the far-right party only has six deputies.
The Republicans party would obtain between 35 and 65 seats, far from the 101 deputies that the moderate right-wing party currently has. The France Insumisa of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, would go from having 11 deputies to getting between 25 and 45 seats. The Communist Party would obtain between 5 and 10 seats; the Socialist Party, between 20 and 40 seats, and the Ecologists between 1 to 5 seats.
In the hypothesis that alliances between the parties were produced for the legislative elections, three great poles would emerge in the National Assembly. If Macron joins with MoDem, Horizons, Republicans and UDI, this coalition could obtain an absolute majority with between 326 and 366 seats.
If the three far-right parties joined forces (National Regroupment, Reconquest and La Francia En Pie) they would obtain between 117 and 147 seats. In the event of a union of the leftist parties (La France Insumisa, the Communist Party, the Socialist Party and the Ecologists) they would obtain between 75 and 93 seats, according to the same survey.
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