The nightmare of the Islamic State resurfaces in Iran

When at the beginning of the week all eyes were focused on the implications of the assassination of the number two of the Palestinian movement Hamas, Saleh al Aruri, in an attack in Beirut that presented all the signs of an Israeli action, two powerful explosions shook the Iranian city of Kerman. On Thursday, dispelling the confusion that had initially surrounded the events, the terrorist group Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for the attack, which caused at least 91 deaths and has become the deadliest in recent history. of Iran.

The attack, carried out in the midst of strong regional tension caused by Israel's devastating military offensive in Gaza, has put ISIS back on the map. This is the last fateful reminder of its presence in different latitudes of the world and its ability to continue carrying out high-impact operations, despite having been defeated in Syria and Iraq – where it controlled large areas of territory between 2014 and 2019. having lost many of its top commanders and leaders in recent years and having been weakened by competition from rival groups.

In 2023, the number of attacks claimed by the Islamic State and its affiliates fell by 53% compared to the previous year, from 1,811 to 838, according to a BBC count based on official statements from the group and its supporters. However, the organization continues to be capable of carrying out hundreds of attacks per year (more than two per day on average in 2023), taking advantage of local political and security vulnerabilities and gaps.

Challenge for Iran

The attack in the city of Kerman, when a tribute was being held for the anniversary of the death of General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone in 2020, was most likely carried out by the branch of the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS-K). This subgroup of the organization was formed in early 2015 and operates mainly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, although also in some surrounding countries, such as Iran, and in recent years it has been modifying its tactics and adapting its actions depending on the circumstances. .

“After the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August 2021, there was a notable increase in ISIS-K attacks. In response, the Taliban began a broad operation against its members and sympathizers, which resulted in the death of dozens of people and the arrest of hundreds, and the attacks decreased considerably,” says Abdul Sayed, an independent researcher focused on jihadism, from Sweden. in the region.

“However, in mid-2022, ISIS-K adopted a new strategy, focusing on large suicide bombings, rather than frequent mini-bombings, targeting foreign diplomats, foreign nationals, influential Taliban commanders, religious figures, and key Kabul facilities.” Sayed explains.

Between January and May 2023, the researcher adds, “the Taliban eliminated more than a dozen key ISIS-K commanders, leading to a drastic reduction in their attacks in Afghanistan and a prolonged cessation” of actions. In 2023, the group's attacks plummeted by 86% compared to the previous year and 93% compared to 2021, according to a BBC tally.

Even so, currently the group's most active operational network is, according to Sayed, in the tribal district of Bajaur, in northwest Pakistan and bordering Afghanistan. The expert says that “details about the whereabouts of ISIS-K leaders and members remain elusive,” but notes that Taliban intelligence operations suggest that cells exist in Kabul, in a northeastern province bordering Pakistan, and in northern provinces that border Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. There are also signs of their presence in the western province of Herat, bordering Iran.

Some analysts have warned that, due to the greater anti-terrorist pressure from the Taliban, ISIS-K could have opted not only to commit fewer attacks, although with more impact, but also with a more regional character. In this sense, one of the most threatened countries is precisely Iran, due to the radically anti-Shiite stance of ISIS – a group that follows the Sunni branch of Islam -, its frontal opposition to the Iranian authorities and its scope to recruit followers among Iranian citizens. Sunnis opposed to the Government of Tehran. Furthermore, Iran does not have the influence or related militias in Afghanistan that would allow it to confront ISIS-K, as it does in Iraq and Syria, through the different pro-Iranian armed groups and proximity to the Government of Bashar al-Assad. .

The Kerman attack is not the only major attack carried out recently by ISIS nor the first major attack against Iran. Last summer, the group killed more than 60 people and injured more than a hundred in another suicide attack carried out during an election rally in Pakistan. In October 2022, the terrorist organization claimed responsibility for another attack in the Iranian city of Shiraz that left more than 10 dead and dozens injured. In 2018, he claimed responsibility for an attack during a military parade in the city of Ahvaz, in southwestern Iran, in which he killed 25 people. And a year before, it hit the center of Tehran with two attacks, against the Iranian Parliament and the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Revolution, in which 18 people died. Iranian authorities have accused the Islamic State of other attacks in the country, and claim to have thwarted dozens.

However, there are still unresolved elements of the latest attack in Iran. “It is premature to determine the degree of involvement of the ISIS-K network in Afghanistan [en el atentado de Kermán]”says Sayed, who highlights that “after it occurred, pro-Taliban media attributed the incident to the ISIS network in Tajikistan” and that “Iranian officials have also confirmed that one of the two suicide bombers was of Tajik nationality.” “If, indeed, he is involved, it is likely that ISIS-K will soon make the details public,” the researcher anticipates.

Global network

In addition to the province of Khorasan (which in jihadist terminology refers to the historical region that includes present-day Afghanistan, eastern Iran and areas of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), the Islamic State maintains multiple branches in other parts of the planet that they remain active. Iraq and Syria are where it has had to mutate the most in recent years due to factors such as the strengthening of the Syrian regime and the Iraqi military apparatus, its loss of territory, influence, resources and recruits, and the rapid elimination of its leaders. Last year, its claimed attacks in Iraq fell by 65% ​​compared to 2022, and in Syria, by 60%. However, the group is still capable of carrying out dozens of attacks, including some particularly sophisticated ones, such as those it has carried out in Syrian prisons to free members of its ranks, and continues to take advantage of security and stability gaps in areas such as central Syria. to reinforce itself.

The situation is markedly different in sub-Saharan Africa, where the Islamic State has five regional branches and has sought to expand its influence in recent years to counter setbacks in the Middle East. There, the group has exploited the greater instability and lower anti-terrorist pressure resulting from multiple coups d'état, especially in the Sahel region, which add to the political and socioeconomic grievances of the local population.

In 2023, attacks by the different branches of the Islamic State in sub-Saharan Africa also decreased compared to the previous year, but the region represented up to 60% of the total attacks claimed by the group in the world. Its most active subsidiaries are those in West Africa, mainly in nor
theastern Nigeria and around Lake Chad, and in the Sahel, especially in Mali. Its provinces in Central Africa and Mozambique also represent a notable threat.

In Egypt, where the Islamic State branch in the Sinai claimed responsibility for more than 100 attacks in 2022 and temporarily occupied some towns in 2020, the threat has been almost completely crushed.

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