Professor and political scientist Cláudio Couto said on Monday (June 13, 2022) that Brazil will need to undergo a national reconstruction starting next year, both because of the bad economic situation, with high inflation, and the crumbling of relationships between institutions.
“The next government will receive a country in shambles. The most serious problem to be faced, and there considering that it would not be [Jair] Bolsonaro because he is the author of it, will be a reconstruction of a series of public policy areas that have been dismantled by the current government.”said in an interview with PowerDataCastpodcast from Power 360 exclusively focused on the debate of electoral polls and public opinion.
Couto also stated that the greatest uncertainty in the electoral process today is the way in which the president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and its supporters will react to an eventual victory by the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN).
“I think the biggest uncertainty we have today is not about voting intentions and the outcome that this scenario [de polarização] shows, but the way in which this president, this government and its network of supporters will behave in the face of an unfavorable outcome for them”declared.
Watch the full interview (45min50s):
For the professor, the constant attacks and questions that Bolsonaro makes to the electoral system and electoral justice “apart from the normality of what would be disputes between candidates in a democracy”.
the coordinator of PowerDateRodolfo Costa Pinto, believes that Bolsonaro, instead of trying to expand his ability to garner votes, has radicalized the support he already has by challenging electoral justice, for example. “I am curious to see how this will affect the government’s assessment in the next polls and how it will be reflected in the election”said.
Search PowerDate held from June 5 to 7, 2022 indicates stability in the presidential succession. Lula maintained the same 43% of voting intention as 15 days ago. Bolsonaro had 35%, a score identical to that of two weeks earlier as well. The distance between the 2 leaders is 8 points.
Couto also said that the current bad economic scenario, with high inflation, could end up helping Lula “by contrast”.
“As Bolsonaro benefited a lot from the anti-petismo in 2018 and from an anti-system vote, the government’s poor performance, with bad indicators, ends up contributing to the reverse effect. In other words, many people who had strong anti-PT sentiment in 2018 have already cooled down. And of course, antibolsonarism gains strength. Nothing is more anti-PT than Bolsonarism and vice versa”said.
For him, as much as Bolsonaro adopts measures to mitigate economic problems, especially for the lowest-income population, with Auxílio Brasil, for example, the current president cannot put himself as more concerned with the social issue than his direct opponent. .
Couto also highlighted that, despite the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula being consolidated, there is some space for other candidates, such as the senator Simone Tebet (MDB) grow. However, an eventual recovery does not mean that a 3rd name will be able to pierce the established dispute. For him, even a last-minute dehydration can happen.
“I would bet that we will go until the 1st round election very close to what we have now, with the exception that candidates who are not in this bipolarization may experience dehydration at the last minute, with voters migrating to those who have the most chances of winning, doing the called useful vote”said.
After João Doria (PSDB) to give up running for the Palácio do Planalto, the only representative of the so-called 3rd way became senator Simone Tebet (MDB-MS). She has had extensive media exposure in the past 15 days. The effect was nil. Tebet had 2% in the previous study by PoderData. Now, she has 1%.
Ciro Gomes (PDT) remains at a level close to that of previous surveys: it has 6%. André Janones (Forward) marks 2%. Only 2 other candidates scored: Jose Maria Eymael (DC) and Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union). The other microcandidates did not have enough mentions to reach 1%. There are still 5% who say they intend to vote blank or null. And 5% say they are undecided.
The survey was carried out by PoderData, a company belonging to the Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 309 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. Registration with the TSE: BR-01975/2022.
To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, PoderData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, more than 100,000 calls are needed until the interviewees are found who faithfully represent the population as a whole. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
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