“I am convinced that the action I am defining and my government team will guarantee that we are not censored,” François Bayrou said Monday night, in a television interview, after revealing his cabinet, dominated by heavyweights of Macronism and conservative figures. . For the moment, the new French prime minister is almost the only one who believes in its possibilities. His first steps in office place him in a very similar position to that of his predecessor, overthrown by a motion of censure in the National Assembly – with the votes of the left-wing and extreme right-wing opposition – at the time of the presentation of the budgets.
“The same causes will produce the same effects,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing France Insoumise party, predicted a few days ago in an interview in Le Parisien. “François Bayrou will not survive the winter.” Furthermore, just two weeks after his appointment, the publication of an IFOP survey has just revealed unprecedented unpopularity for a newly appointed head of government.
Unlike his predecessor, Michel Barnier, who barely dialogued with the progressive forces and who concentrated (unsuccessfully) on ensuring the abstention of the extreme right, Bayrou seemed in the first days to adopt a strategy focused on convincing a part of the left-wing deputies – socialists, communists and environmentalists – so that they do not vote on the foreseeable motions of censure that will be activated against him – France Insumisa has already announced the presentation of one next month.
But the composition of his team does not seem to have been well received by anyone outside the center-right coalition, and the Executive’s orientation seems similar to that of the previous one. “This is not a government, it is a provocation. The extreme right in power under the watchful eye of the extreme right,” reacted the leader of the socialists, Olivier Faure.
Among the few differences with Barnier’s Executive is the return of figures close to President Emmanuel Macron, such as Élisabeth Borne and Gérald Darmanin. In this sense, the French media highlights the absence of followers of Gabriel Attal, former prime minister and current president of the Macronist party; an exclusion that seems to mark a little more the distance that has been created between Macron and the new head of the party.
On the other hand, the entry of Manuel Valls into the Government has been perceived as an additional provocation by the socialists – the former prime minister and Ciudadanos candidate is at odds with a good part of his former political family. According to Faure, in his first week in office after his appointment by Macron, Bayrou “has not respected any of the conditions of the non-censorship pact proposed by the left.” These conditions included “not depending on the extreme right,” and “not forcing laws with article 49.3” of the Constitution, which allows the approval of legislative texts without a parliamentary vote. “If there is no change of course, there will be censorship,” Faure warned in a morning interview on RMC/BFM-TV.
Negotiation grounds
However, there are two possible areas of negotiation with which the prime minister could try to convince the socialists: an agreement on the budgets or a review of the controversial 2023 pension reform, the repeal of which the entire left is demanding. The prime minister has ruled out the hypothesis of total cancellation, which he considers impossible in view of the state of the public debt, but has shown himself willing to modify the text. The convening of a “social conference” on pensions could offer a way out.
On the other hand, François Bayrou has two months to work on the budgets and convince a sufficient number of deputies – from the left or the extreme right – to be able to move them forward. This could be done by obtaining enough votes for parliamentary approval of the budget texts or, if the Government decides to force approval without a vote, by getting them to abstain in the foreseeable motion of censure that would then be activated.
One of the key figures in this possible negotiation will be Éric Lombard, the new Minister of Economy. A senior civil servant and former banker, he is a popular figure among social democrats – he was an advisor in socialist governments in the 90s.
The position of the extreme right
If he does not get the support – or abstention – of the left, François Bayrou’s future would remain in the hands of Marine Le Pen, as happened to Michel Barnier. The position of the extreme right is that it will not censor “a priori” but they will do so if they are not satisfied with the budget texts, as happened to Barnier.
In this sense, the appointment of the new Minister of Justice is causing much speculation. The favorite to occupy that portfolio was Xavier Bertrand, conservative president of the Hauts-de-France region and Marine Le Pen’s bête noire, whom he defeated in the regional elections.
Although members of Le Pen’s party had publicly said that Bertrand’s nomination would not be case belli for a government censorship, as published on Monday the weekly L’Expressa phone call from Marine Le Pen was decisive in blocking Bertrand. This version has been confirmed by Bertrand himself on social networks. In his place, the Macronist Gérald Darmanin was appointed to the position.
Politicians and journalists quickly speculated on the possibility of a link between Le Pen’s veto of Bertrand for the position of Minister of Justice and the fact that the far-right leader awaits the verdict in the first instance of the trial on March 31. on the parliamentary assistants of her party, in which she runs the risk of being sentenced to a sentence of ineligibility with immediate effect.
Darmanin was one of the first politicians to speak out publicly against this possible disqualification. “Although the court considers that she should be condemned, she cannot also be condemned electorally, without allowing the expression of the people,” he stated then.
Bayrou denied this interpretation on Monday in a television interview. “It is not true that any influence was exerted on me. I have already seen in the newspapers that Mrs Le Pen had called me by phone. It’s not true either.”
Bayrou is also repeating that a motion of censure would aggravate the country’s blockade situation, as a means of putting pressure on deputies from some parties who might not want to vote for a new impeachment that could plunge the country into an even deeper political crisis. “I think everyone has to take responsibility,” he repeated on Monday. “I think we are in an extremely difficult situation, the most difficult we have had since the war, with a country that has no budgets, a country that does not have a majority, a country in which a large number of French people think that they have been left aside, that no attention is paid to them.”
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