When this Tuesday the Princess of Asturias swears in the Constitution in Congress, coinciding with her coming of age, she will be just one step away from being queen. The moment her father is absent—due to abdication, incapacity, or death—she will automatically become head of state, without the interregnum of a regency. The first-born of the Kings may take months or years to take that step. Or she may never give it. But she already represents the future of the Monarchy, the youthful and feminine face of a secular institution that is reinventing itself to project itself through the 21st century. If she takes the crown, she will be the first queen of Spain in more than 120 years and also the first time that three generations of Bourbons have peacefully succeeded each other on the throne for more than two centuries.
EL PAÍS has asked seven of the most prestigious experts in contemporary history of Spain about the meaning of this oath, the strengths and weaknesses of the Monarchy, the risks it faces and if they believe that Leonor de Borbón Ortiz will one day be Leonor I of Spain. These are his reflections.
For Carmen Iglesias, director of the Royal Academy of History, Tuesday’s event is a “historic act, which symbolizes dynastic continuity and constitutional loyalty.” An event that “links the past with the future, represents continuity and renewal,” in the opinion of Jordi Canal, professor at the School of Higher Studies in Social Sciences in Paris.
For this reason, the absence of Juan Carlos I in the solemn session of the Cortes Generales – an absence that Carmen Iglesias considers “very regrettable” – is paradoxical: neither Felipe VI nor the Princess of Asturias would be there if it were not for the king emeritus, but he is not invited, unlike the Count of Barcelona, grandfather of the current monarch, who was reserved a place of honor in the swearing-in of the then Prince of Asturias, on January 30, 1986. “The succession of Juan Carlos I was traumatic,” explains Julián Casanova, professor of Contemporary History at the University of Zaragoza. And this trauma that has not yet been overcome has led the King’s House to “mark distances” with the immediate past, in the opinion of José Álvarez Junco, professor emeritus at the Complutense University of Madrid.
Spain was not monarchical, according to the historians consulted, but it became juancarlista after the then head of state ordered the tanks to return to their barracks on the night of the coup of February 23, 1981. “Franco bequeathed him all the powers, he could have been an absolute king and he decided to be a constitutional monarch. You have to thank him for that. Then his personal behavior tarnished his public face,” says Álvarez Junco. “He juancarlism was delegitimized. He himself contributed to its disappearance,” laments Ángeles Egido, professor of Contemporary History at UNED. “There was a sacralization of the figure of Juan Carlos I and that image was broken,” Casanova concludes.
The sexual and economic scandals of the emeritus king undermined the prestige of the Monarchy, which hit rock bottom in the middle of the last decade. But experts agree that the institution has largely overcome this setback and Felipe VI, with his conduct, “has earned the trust of the Spanish people,” in the words of Ángeles Egido.
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It is difficult to know to what extent it has regained popularity since the CIS, the main Spanish demographic institute, has not asked about the Monarchy or the Royal Family since 2015. Of course “there is no felipism [por Felipe VI] in the style of juancarlism, but it is appreciated by Spanish society,” says Álvarez Junco. “The challenge of Felipe VI is to relegitimize the institution as such, not to establish an emotional connection between Spaniards and his person, like his father, but to ensure that they become monarchists,” says Javier Moreno Luzón, professor of History of Thought and of Social and Political Movements at the Complutense University of Madrid. “The Spanish Monarchy does not have the popularity of the British one, it is not a hallmark of the country, it is there and plays its role, but the moment it makes one or two serious mistakes, it can falter. “You can’t allow it,” warns Álvarez Junco.
Know how to adapt
The monarchies that did not know how to adapt to the parliamentary regime fell in the 20th century (Portugal, Germany, Italy, Greece and a long etcetera). The Spanish woman also fell but, and this is an exceptional case, she came back and had “a second chance”, in the words of Egido.
“The Monarchy was not restored. It was established by the Franco regime,” explains this historian. Franco designated Juan Carlos his heir, bypassing the legitimate king, the Count of Barcelona. Only when, after the dictator died, Juan de Borbón renounced his dynastic rights did monarchical legitimacy and power come together in his son. de facto.
With such dark precedents, the legitimacy of the Monarchy is not so much of origin as of exercise. It is accepted to the extent that it is useful for society; which means being profitable in the cost-benefit ratio. “The dilemma [Monarquía o República] It is no longer presented in essentialist terms but in utilitarian terms”, according to Álvarez Junco.
The Monarchy is not a democratic institution and does not submit to the verdict of the polls. But that does not mean that it is immune to the judgment of citizens. On the contrary. “All [los servidores públicos] They have to earn their position with their behavior and even more so the monarch,” warns Egido. “Philip VI has learned the lesson that the Monarchy must be watered every day, because public opinion can turn against it,” adds Canal.
It is not known if the path that Leonor de Borbón will take from her oath to the throne will be long or short, or if she will even complete it, but it will be full of traps. When asked if the Princess of Asturias will be queen, Casanova warns: “I am not a fortune teller, but the transition is not going to be easy. If the institution takes a wrong step there could be problems.”
The greatest risks for the institution would be two: once again engaging in immoral behavior like that of Juan Carlos I, especially economic ones, departing from the line of austerity and exemplarity promised by Felipe VI; and get involved in the partisan struggle. Javier Moreno, biographer of Alfonso
Although they may seem like dilemmas from the last century, the investiture process has revealed the strong pressure from a sector of the right for Felipe VI to let the two-month deadline pass after Feijóo’s failure without designating Pedro Sánchez as a candidate and thus forcing an electoral repetition. “There are many people who demand the intervention of the King beyond his constitutional powers. And they do a disservice to the institution who, declaring themselves monarchists, throw stones at their own roof,” says Moreno. “If the Monarchy wants to be a symbol of unity, it has to stay away from the political hornet’s nest,” he adds.
Not only will the king emeritus be absent from the princess’s oath, but also the presidents of Catalonia and the Basque Country, as well as the parliamentarians of the Catalan, Basque and Galician nationalist groups, in addition to the majority of those from Sumar. At the swearing-in of Felipe VI, almost 38 years ago, Lehendakari José Antonio Ardanza and the president Jordi Pujol, who had an almost complicity relationship with Juan Carlos I.
Although these rudenesses have become common, Carmen Iglesias considers them a “profound discourtesy” and an “insult to all Spaniards”, which illustrates the divorce of part of Catalan and Basque society with the Crown. A problem that “is not going to be solved overnight,” according to Moreno; and it is aggravated because the “antagonism” with the monarch has become the flag of the pro-independence parties after the royal speech of October 3, 2017 that opened the door to the application of article 155 of the Constitution, adds Canal.
Having lost the support of peripheral nationalists, the support of the PSOE is “essential” for the institution. Without the socialists, the Monarchy would remain lame, only supported by the forces of the right – PP, Vox and UPN – and in the medium term it would be unviable. “For the institution to have a future, it cannot identify with the right or the left,” explains this last historian.
If the Socialist Party opted for the Republic, the situation would be similar to what occurred in Catalonia with the shift of Convergència from autonomism to independence, which shot up the latter’s electoral share to almost 50% of the electorate.
Mercedes Cabrera, who was Minister of Education under José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, cannot imagine that the PSOE could take that turn, but she warns of the risk that the parties will turn the Crown into an object of political fray and “someone will insist on “in appropriating it, just as they have done with the symbols of Spain, such as the flag or the anthem.”
The majority of socialists, including some who will have a relevant role in Tuesday’s events, confess themselves to be republicans, but they consider, like Cabrera, that this is not a priority issue nor one that worries Spaniards now. If in the midst of a strong political polarization the melon of the Monarchy-Republic dilemma were to open, it would enter a spiral “with a very difficult solution,” Moreno warns.
Beyond the scandals of the emeritus king, the Monarchy shows in its record of services to Spain that it has facilitated almost half a century of democracy, stability and economic prosperity, alleges this historian. It remains to be seen how long that credit will be worth to Leonor de Borbón, who is still a blank page.
The fact that she is a woman is “providential” for the institution, according to Egido, and a “very positive, although unsought” factor, in the words of Iglesias, since it is in tune with a time in which women are assuming more and more responsibilities and “reinforces their presence in positions of power,” adds Cabrera. Her youth, Moreno points out, can help the Crown connect with a sector of the population in which until now she arouses “quite low sympathy.”
Although most historians believe that, if there are no accidents along the way, Eleanor of Borbón will one day be Queen, they are very cautious when it comes to the question of whether this will mean the definitive consolidation of the Monarchy. “I would never use the definitive term in history,” concludes Álvarez Junco.
Tuesday the 31st, agenda for a real day
11.00 The Princess of Asturias, Leonor de Borbón, swears in the Constitution before the Cortes Generales. She is sworn in by the president of Congress, Francina Armengol, who gives a speech. Kings Felipe VI and Letizia and Infanta Sofía attend.
1:30 p.m. The acting President of the Government imposes the Necklace of Charles III on the Princess of Asturias in the Royal Palace. Speech by President Pedro Sánchez and the Princess of Asturias. Kings Felipe and Letizia and Infanta Sofía attend.
14.00 Lunch with the heads of the high institutions of the State at the Royal Palace. King’s Speech. Queen Letizia, the Princess of Asturias and Infanta Sofía attend.
Late night. Private dinner at El Pardo on the occasion of Leonor de Borbón’s 18th birthday. The Kings, their sister Sofía, the emeritus kings, Juan Carlos I and Sofía are invited; Felipe VI’s sisters, Elena and Cristina, and their children; as well as Queen Letizia’s family.
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