The main threats to political destabilization in Ukraine will be the collapse of the ruling majority in the Verkhovna Rada, as well as the possibility of consensus among opponents of the incumbent President Volodymyr Zelensky. Experts of the “Eurasian Strategies” agency of MGIMO expressed this opinion in their annual report “International Threats”, which was read by “Lenta.ru”.
In 2022, there are several scenarios in which Zelensky could seriously lose ground, experts write. First of all, the danger for the president is the former speaker of parliament and the head of its campaign headquarters Dmitry Razumkov, who recently joined the opposition. Razumkov has gathered a group of supporters in the Verkhovna Rada and can now split the parliamentary majority, which is still loyal to Zelensky. The former speaker is able to consolidate around himself the “variegated Ukrainian opposition” due to the fact that he does not have a negative image of the “former” or “pro-Russian” politician.
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The fact that the president has not yet managed to fulfill his election promises is against Zelensky: there is no progress in the settlement in Donbass, and the socio-economic situation of Ukrainians has not improved. Ukrainian society is also dissatisfied with the government’s measures in the fight against COVID-19. The situation does not help either Zelensky’s conflict with the oligarchs, especially with the owner of the largest energy company DTEK Rinat Akhmetov.
“However, the Ukrainian president still has trump cards,” the authors of the report write. Among the pluses for Zelensky, the role of the “Russian threat” is noted, which allowed the head of state to gain the support of the security forces and close on the “patriotic theme.” Allegations of the alleged accumulation of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border appeared in the fall of 2021, and since then have been actively replicated by Ukrainian and Western politicians. The fragmentation of many political forces in Ukraine plays into the hands of Zelenskiy, which “leaves the president room for maneuver.”
Finally, the outcome of the talks between Russia and the United States on security guarantees in Eastern Europe will also play a significant role in the domestic political situation. The possibility of Ukraine’s membership in NATO is in question, and this factor will also contribute to the country’s destiny.
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