The DANA synoptic analysis of October 29, 2024 that affected the Spanish Levant has revealed that the event was caused by a current of cold air that, upon reaching the Mediterranean coast and coming into contact with the warm and humid air of the Mediterranean, favored the formation of dense cloud cover and torrential rains.
According to estimates, rainfall values of up to 500 l/m² were reached in the province of Valencia in eight hours, affecting municipalities such as Chiva, Utiel, Paiporta, Torrent and Requena, among others. Other provinces affected have been Málaga, as well as Albacete and Cuenca, especially their municipalities of Letur and Miras, respectively.
These precipitations quickly saturated the soils, generating sudden floods in torrents, channels and boulevards, which were unleashed in a few hours, which limited the response time, leaving little room to issue effective alerts and implement evacuation and rescue measures. . As a result, significant damage has occurred to agriculture and infrastructure, as well as businesses, industries and homes in the affected urban areas.
Likewise, as of October 31, more than 150 deaths had already been recorded, of which at least 92 had been registered in the province of Valencia, one in the province of Málaga, another in Cuenca, in the town of Mira, and another in Albacete, in the town of Letur, where, in addition, there are four missing people.
The risk of building in river spaces
These types of events have also caused disasters in the Spanish Levant in the past. Specifically, the Valencia flood of 1957, which caused 81 deaths when the Turia overflowed, or the 1982 flood in Alicante, in which there were three deaths. In 1982, the Tous dam also broke, which collapsed after rains of more than 600 mm in a few hours, leaving 30 dead and more than 30,000 people homeless.
In 1997, extreme rainfall in Alicante caused 4 fatalities. In 2018, on the island of Mallorca there were 13 deaths due to flooding in the town of Sant Llorenç, and in 2019, a DANA in the Vega Baja region of Alicante caused three deaths.
In relation to these events, the main factor amplifying the loss of human life, victims and economic damage is the urbanization of the river spaces of channels and boulevards, a circumstance that has also occurred in the majority of the urban centers affected by the DANA of last October 29.
Thus, urban expansion in river spaces with intermittent channels such as the Rambla del Poyo has increased the exposure and vulnerability and, consequently, the risk of urban and peri-urban areas to sudden floods such as those that occurred in the event described here. .
In the future, climate change will probably increase the frequency, duration and severity of DANA, since the foreseeable increase in Mediterranean temperature will increase the humidity of the air masses, which will enhance the occurrence of extreme rainfall in the event of the formation of DANA. On the other hand, these phenomena, until now common at the end of summer, could extend over time if high sea temperatures continue after autumn.
Proposals for improvements in risk management
The effects of the recent DANA highlight the need to improve risk management based on prevention, preparedness and effective response. These are some proposals:
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Improve risk perception: through communication campaigns adapted to different audiences, using local media, social networks and mobile applications to disseminate existing danger and risk maps, or local civil protection plans, among other available sources of information.
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Create holistic vulnerability indices: these must consider the social, economic, physical, institutional, cultural and environmental dimensions, which would help identify priority areas and focus resources on the highest risk areas.
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Develop probabilistic-based hazard and risk maps: these would replace the usual deterministic approach, to allow informed decision-making based on probability, rather than on binary mapping outputs (areas that flood versus areas that do not flood). flood).
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Improve the resilience of urban infrastructure: encouraging the adaptation of buildings located in risk areas, by installing containment barriers and anti-flood gates or by raising the access level to the first floor of the building.
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Improve weather warning systems: this requires developing new models and technologies that maximize the accuracy of forecasts. With this, the efficiency of messaging notification systems supported by mobile telephony such as ES-ALERT can be increased, which allows civil protection authorities to alert the population about the need to avoid trips to schools or work centers in case of occurrence of torrential rains.
In summary, the DANA of October 29, 2024 shows the need to improve risk management in vulnerable areas of the Spanish Levant. Urbanization of floodplains and climate change increase exposure to flash floods.
Given this panorama, it is essential to improve the social perception of risk, through the development of communication plans; develop holistic vulnerability indices and improve the resilience of buildings in urban areas. Additionally, increasing the efficiency of weather warning systems and adopting preventative approaches could reduce damage and protect lives during future extreme events.
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