The latest maritime dispute between Beijing and Manila stirs up the waters of the South China Sea again

Tensions around the South China Sea have been growing over the past decade, with Beijing gradually extending its dominance in the region by building artificial islands and military installations, as well as deploying frequent patrols. Disputes have intensified particularly with the Philippines, and the most recent incident, which occurred on June 17 and left several Filipino sailors injured, has raised concerns in Manila and Washington, which warn that an escalation of the conflict could involve countries across the Indo-Pacific. Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stressed the need to “do more” than “lodge protests” against Beijing, although he did not provide further details.

Manila accused the Chinese Coast Guard in June of ramming and boarding Philippine Navy vessels attempting to resupply the small military garrison there. Sierra Madrea rusty World War II ship stranded on the Ayungin Atoll since 1999 by the Manila government to maintain its interests in this enclave disputed with China. The Philippine Army claims that the Chinese coast guard “deliberately pierced” its inflatable boats “with knives, axes and other sharp objects” and “looted” its troops’ weapons. The most seriously injured is a sailor who lost the thumb of his right hand.

According to Beijing, its coastguard took “control measures” and “in accordance with the law” against a supply vessel and two motorboats that had “entered the waters adjacent to the Ren’ai Jiao reef” (as the Asian giant calls Ayungin) without permission from the Chinese government. “The maneuvers were professional, moderate, justified and legitimate,” insists the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

China blames the Philippines for sending construction materials to the Sierra Madre to repair the ship and prevent it from disintegrating on the reef, a situation that Beijing has been waiting for for 25 years. Although Manila says its ships are only supplying the small garrison of soldiers stationed there, the newspaper Financial Times The Philippine Navy confirmed that the country has managed to secretly reinforce the ship and extend its lifespan, citing sources familiar with the operation. The ship is a Philippine outpost to reinforce its claims to the atoll, which is just 105 nautical miles from the Philippine province of Palawan and is therefore considered by Manila to be part of its exclusive economic zone, which under international law extends up to 200 nautical miles from the coast of a sovereign state.

The Philippine leader has awarded medals to the 80 sailors who were attacked and urged them to “continue to fulfill their duty to defend the nation.” Marcos Jr. said his country “will not yield or be intimidated” by “any foreign power,” and stressed that the archipelago “does not seek to instigate any war,” but “to resolve all these issues peacefully.” However, he hinted at a red line: any Chinese action that ends the life of a Philippine soldier will be considered “very close to an act of war.”

The tsunami has also reached Washington. The White House has recalled that the mutual defence treaty signed in 1951 with Manila “extends to armed attacks against Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea,” according to the statement issued by the State Department on June 17. On Wednesday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed to his Philippine counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro Jr., “the United States’ strong commitment to the Philippines following dangerous Chinese actions.” US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the crisis was due to one of “many Chinese provocations that can trigger conflicts capable of devastating the world economy.”

The Wall Street Journal The report said that since the incident, “US officials at the highest level” have been discussing “an appropriate response,” according to security sources. Last week, the Philippine ambassador to the United States, Jose Manuel Romualdez, called the situation “incendiary” in an interview with the Financial Timesin which he took the opportunity to warn that Beijing is testing Washington’s determination: “I think China should not underestimate the seriousness [del tratado de defensa mutua]because it is very serious.”

Wang Zaibang, senior researcher at the think tank The Beijing-based Taihe Institute believes that the US is “just looking for media hype, nothing more.” “The power dynamics and situation in the region are quite clear,” it writes in a message. “The US is in a difficult position: fully supporting the Philippines means directly confronting China, which is very risky and brings no benefit to Washington. And if it allows the situation to escalate but does not intervene, it would lose international credibility, especially with its allies,” Wang believes.

China claims “undisputed sovereignty” over 90% of the South China Sea, citing “historical reasons.” The waters of this strategic waterway are rich in natural resources and fisheries, and a third of global trade passes through the area annually. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague unanimously denied the legal basis for its arguments and ruled that Beijing’s expansionism violates the sovereign rights of many of its neighbors. Although the People’s Republic is a signatory to the UN treaty on which the ruling is based, it questions the authority of that decision and does not recognize it. In addition to the Ayungin Atoll, China and the Philippines dispute sovereignty over the Scarborough Sandbank, near the Philippine island of Luzon, and several islands in the Spratly archipelago, where Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims.

The clashes between Philippine and Chinese vessels are nothing new: they increased significantly during the government of Benigno Aquino III (2010-2016), who filed the historic arbitration request. Although they calmed down during the mandate of Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022), more inclined to rapprochement with Beijing, since Marcos Jr. came to power, the Philippines has strengthened its military relationship with the United States with an eye on China.

And the clashes have become more frequent. According to data analysed by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Chinese coast guards patrolled the waters of Ayungin Atoll 302 days last year, 23 days more than in 2022.

The Philippines’ Foreign Affairs Secretary, Enrique Manalo, said during a Senate hearing on Tuesday that the Philippines is committed to working with China to develop “confidence-building measures,” although he acknowledged that it is “a challenge.” The next day, the Philippines’ National Security Council announced that “official and unofficial channels” are being used to resolve the problems, but asked the government to “be realistic” in the face of Chinese demands, according to the Philippine radio and television station GMA.

Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a researcher
at the Southeast Asia Program at the Australian think tank Lowy Institute, said in a video call that “the starting point for any negotiation is very complicated, because neither side is going to give up its sovereignty.” “Translating policies into a real commitment to China is difficult,” he concluded.

The scenario Yaacob paints is, for now, far from a full-scale conflict, although he admits that among diplomatic sources “the biggest concern is that a small spark will cause a fire, as has happened at other times in history.” In the near future, he believes Beijing will continue to employ intimidation tactics. “China could start confiscating Philippine vessels and detaining their crews soon,” he says, referring to the update of the Chinese coast guard law, which came into effect on June 15, two days before the incident at Ayungin Atoll. The new regulations detail the procedure for suppressing “illegal activities in waters under Chinese jurisdiction” and stipulate that foreign citizens suspected of illegally entering waters claimed by Beijing can be detained for up to 60 days.

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