Jihadism expert Dario Crisanti of the Institute of International Affairs: “A personal success for Biden, the US proves it still has the best intelligence in the world”
Dario Cristiani, expert on jihadist terrorism and Mediterranean security of the Iai (Institute of International Affairs) and of the German Marshall Fund in Washington. What does the killing of Al Qaeda’s number one, Ayman al-Zawahiri, mean for the American administration? Is this a personal success of Biden, who closes the circle opened by Obama with the elimination of Osama bin Laden in 2011?
«It is clearly a success for Biden, from an image and operational point of view. In the past year, the US administration has killed two leaders in pectore of the Islamic State in Syria, al-Qurayshi and Maher al Agal, and now that of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan: the US demonstrates that it maintains a granular intelligence capacity, even in territories such as in Kabul from which they came out. In this case a year ago, and with a disastrous operation that we all remember ».
Who is Biden showing his intelligence power to?
«To the Qaedist groups, but not only to them. He has shown that he is able to perform an action of great precision, sending the signal that he is capable of counter terrorism operations like no one in the world. It is a personal achievement of the American president, who can capitalize internally, but also externally. The presence of Al Zawahiri in Kabul, killed on the balcony of a house owned by Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Afghan interior minister, is proof that the Taliban do not respect the Doha agreements (signed with Trump in 2020, in which they undertook to prevent the proliferation of terrorist groups, ed). He shows the world that Kabul is a safe haven for Al Qaeda. Biden also proves to have a fairly qualified source in these circles, a capillary control and an ability to infiltrate without collateral damage ».
Is it also a message to other enemies of the US, from China to Russia?
“It was a specific operation aimed at giving a blow to the leadership of Al Qaeda, although from an operational point of view little will change in the way these terrorist groups have been moving around the world in the last 15 years. In the current geopolitical phase of Russian revenge, in the Chinese attempt to be more assertive, Biden has certainly spoken to other enemies as well. He has shown that: multipolar competition is fine, but the US still has the ability to operate where the enemy does not believe. An embassy similar in some ways to the one launched to Russia with the war in Ukraine: there was no boots on the ground commitment by America, but the Atlantic Alliance has compacted more than expected, and it was not taken for granted ” .
Does Al Zawahiri’s death represent the weakening or even the end of Al Qaeda?
“That this is an important blow, it is clear. But the history of these groups shows that decapitating the leadership does not mean the end of the organization. It is undoubtedly the closing of the circle of the September 11 attacks, which still have a great psychological impact on American society, even if 20 years have passed. The jihadist movements and Al Qaeda in particular have such a resilience capacity that they have survived various beheadings of leaders, from Osama onwards. In Mali, for example, in the last 10 years, or in Burkina Faso or even more recently in Benin, Togo, the Ivory Coast, beheading the leadership has partly slowed the development of the Qaedist groups, but has not led to their disappearance. The leaders have been replaced and the group has strengthened, adapting to the socio-economic conditions of the African territory of reference ».
Does it mean that, quietly, terrorism is in an expansion phase?
“It is an illusion to think that terrorism is ending, indeed it is transforming and changing areas of roots. Africa represents the new frontier. Also due to favorable conditions, such as the great demographic expansion: young people are the main recruitment pool for these groups. The death of Al Zawahiri is in some ways an epochal transition: just as he, in the 90s, had brought Al Qaeda out of Afghanistan, to become a global threat, so history repeats itself. We could see tomorrow an exchange, a passing of the baton between the Middle East and Africa, in the return of these groups on the global stage ».
Unlimited access to all site content
€ 1 / month for 3 months, then € 3.99 / month for 3 months
Unlock unlimited access to all content on the site
#killing #AlZawahiri #future #Qaeda #Terrorism #Middle #East #inflame #Africa