The Italian car market is gradually shedding its skin, still far from pre-covid levels in terms of numbers. Thanks to the chip crisis and the war in Ukraine, we are witnessing a further aging of the vehicle fleet, with increasing emissions. The compacts suffer, which in 2022 lost 22%, while the luxury segments grow. Long-term leasing is confirmed as the privileged channel in managing the transition, allowing everyone, individuals and fleets, to reduce the risks of uncertainty with certain and predetermined costs. Electric cars are falling back, proving to be the right solution for the few, who live mainly in big cities. Thanks to more competitive production costs, manufacturers from Eastern Europe and Asia will conquer growing market shares in the coming years (4% in Italy by 2030), to the detriment of the traditional brands of the “old continent”. From 2015 to today, Europe has lost the production on its territory of 5 million and 300 thousand cars, today mostly produced in China.
These are the main findings of the new study conducted by Aniasa and Bain & company ‘The east wind blows on the automotive sector’, the annual survey on the mobility of Italians. Not only new models, also new engines (bev, hev), new manufacturers (from the east), new business models, new segment mixes (larger), new channels (rental).
The vehicle fleet grows and ages…
Italians are disoriented (also by the very delayed delivery times), they put off buying a car and mostly end up keeping their own, as confirmed by the drastic drop in scrapping (-30% in 2022 vs 2021), with almost half a million fewer cars scrapped. The natural consequence of these factors is a continuous growth of the vehicle fleet, as well as its average age, which has now doubled the levels of 20 years ago, exceeding 12 years of age for each vehicle. And when Italians really have to change their car, they increasingly prefer to rent rather than buy.
The electric convinces few
Progressive electrification is leading to a gradual disengagement of traditional manufacturers from the small car segment. The a-segment, historically very important in Italy, with shares equal to one fifth of the market, has begun to decline, reaching 15%, to the benefit of the larger (and more expensive) car segments. Therefore, at least for the moment, the false myth of small electric city cars collapses: to date, electric vehicles have the largest share in the medium-large car segments.
In registrations in the first quarter of 2023, the bev share in medium and large cars is approximately 13% of the total market, against 2.6% in compacts. Bevs are also confirmed to be more concentrated in large cities. The winners are always petrol engines and mild hybrid cars. In geographical terms, the panorama remains very fragmented: southern Italy is confirmed to lower the average of the ev, which does not go beyond 5-6% of the total market if bev and phev are added. The European market is not doing much better, having closed down by 3.9%, but with the bevs rising from 10.8% to 14.7% of the share; towing are Germany and the United Kingdom, with Italy and Spain bringing up the rear.
A context of uncertainty
The analysis confirms the centrality of economic sustainability as a determining factor in the consumption habits of Italians: cars and public transport are winners thanks to their convenience and flexibility for all mobility purposes. Although their use is expected to expand further in 2023 (together with the bike), the suffering of the market – which translates into a drop in registrations – is confirmed by the lower propensity to buy on the part of Italians. In fact, almost 60% of the population did not consider buying an expensive asset such as a car last year, mainly for reasons related to economic uncertainty. In this context, therefore, additional incentives and discounts, if well orchestrated, are the only element that could make the purchase of a new car considered.
Chinese cars
In response to the needs of consumers for economic sustainability, the Italian market is therefore increasingly becoming the prerogative of manufacturers from Eastern Asia and Eastern Europe, capable of producing cars at more competitive costs. To conquer the market of the old continent, these operators are exploiting new supply chains, but also creative solutions, in the meantime repositioning themselves on a more premium segment, in line with the demand of the European market.
New native ev players are appearing from China, not only in the mainstream market, but also in the top segments. Not surprisingly, some Asian brands have already climbed many of the top positions in global sales of electrified cars, even overtaking Tesla.
The ranking of the main manufacturers of electrified cars is dotted with Chinese brands, which have now taken the podium away from the historic players: byd is the first manufacturer of electrified cars in the world (tesla maintains the top step in the bevs). The bulk of sales is recorded in China, but the share in Ruropa is progressively increasing. The shift towards the East is also particularly evident in terms of production quotas, where Europe has ceded the scepter of main producer to China, which has already reached 4th place in the ranking of countries that recorded the highest number of patents in Europe, with Italy only eleventh. In the coming years, manufacturers from Eastern Europe and Asia will conquer growing market shares (4% in Italy by 2030), to the detriment of traditional brands from the old continent.
#Italians #car #fleet #grows #ages #electric #FormulaPassion.it