The war in ukraine It does not let up and, despite the fact that the parties agreed to a ceasefire to allow humanitarian corridors, Russia resumed its offensive on Saturday afternoon.
(Follow the minute by minute of the conflict in Ukraine)
Several of the cities of the Ukrainian southeast are controlled by the Russians, while Kiev, the capital, resists although it continues to be the victim of intense attacks by the Kremlin military forces.
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Kiev is bleeding to death even before the expected Russian siege begins. Tens of thousands of inhabitants of the Ukrainian capital began this weekend a long exodus to the west of the country and, if possible, abroad.
However, what seemed at first to be an agile invasion without major difficulties for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has turned into an offensive that added 11 days this Sunday and that does not seem to make Russia’s intentions very clear.
Charles Kupchan, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, who also served as assistant director for European affairs at the Obama administration’s National Security Council (NSC) and director of the European affairs of the NSC during the Clinton administration, spoke with EL TIEMPO.
Where is the war going in Ukraine?
Russia will continue its offensive against the largest cities in eastern Ukraine. Putin will seek to fulfill his objective, which is the leadership of the Kiev government and install a pro-Russian puppet regime. But the war in Ukraine is going slower than Russia expected. The Ukrainians are showing impressive determination to resist, but I fear that, given Russia’s military superiority, it is likely that Putin could succeed in occupying most of eastern Ukraine. Whether he goes further and tries to take over the rest of the country remains to be seen.
How much longer can Kiev hold out?
I think it’s hard to know. It is not clear if the Russian troops are going to besiege Kiev and try to force a surrender or if they are going to go directly to the center of the city and establish a regime by force. I don’t think this Ukrainian government is going to capitulate. As for how long Kiev can hold out, I don’t think months, but weeks.
Has the Russian army made military and tactical mistakes?
The Russians underestimated how much the Ukrainians were going to resist, both the people and the army. Putin thought that the Ukrainians wanted to be Russians and that when the Russian military arrived they would be welcomed as liberators. In addition, there are reports that they are facing logistical problems. But the biggest mistake is the lack of calculation on how the Ukrainians would react to the invasion.
After Ukraine, will Putin lead his troops to another country in Europe?
It’s a very important question, but I really don’t know because Putin has changed. He seemed to be very calculating and pick fights that he could win: Crimea, Donbas, Nagorno-Karabakh, even intervention in Syria was limited. But now he seems to be much less calculating, suggesting that we don’t know where he might end up. I think it is unlikely that he will risk a war with NATO, because that would be the third world war.
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