The Indian opposition refuses to give up on the elections

With the exit polls blowing in favor, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People’s Party) of the current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is savoring the idea that its victory is now a fact. The result of the largest general election on the planet, which concluded on Saturday, will not be known until counting begins on Tuesday. But Modi—after 45 hours of spiritual retreat—met on Sunday with members of his Executive to prepare for the first 100 days of what would be his third term, according to the national press on Monday. The Indian newspapers barely leave any room for defeat. They even report the streets of New Delhi through which the BJP’s electoral celebrations will take place and the number of people expected at the celebrations.

Although everything seems to be against it, the opposition coalition, led by the Congress Party (PdC), clings to internal numbers and electoral dynamics to predict an unexpected turn. It would not be the first time. It happened in the 2004 elections, when many considered the BJP the winner, and the PdC managed to rear its head by surprise when crossing the finish line. The polls, they say from this party, are not reliable.

“These polls are obviously exaggerated,” asserts Sachin Pilot, 46, one of the rising leaders of the PdC. The politician, dressed in a pink linen shirt, receives EL PAÍS on Monday at his office in the center of Delhi. It is a strange day, of emptiness and political suspense in the country’s capital; The messages and gestures, in reality, are no longer useful—because voting has already been done—and the words spoken could become old in less than 24 hours, when the official results begin to come out.

In this kind of electoral purgatory, Pilot clings to “mathematics” to ensure that his party still has options. As he sees it, in the 2019 elections, Modi’s party obtained a majority with the support of just over 37% of voters; the rest voted for countless opposition parties. In those elections, these myriad alternative political options competed separately; On this occasion, more than 20 groups have joined together under the umbrella of an alliance named with the acronym India. The key, he points out, is in those places where the PdC is hot on the heels of the BJP. “If we are able to improve the batting rate in these States, something that I think should happen, then there is game,” says this politician with a cricket metaphor who became in 2004, at the age of 26, the youngest member of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament, and has been deputy chief minister of the State of Rajasthan (2018-2020).

The Indian coalition includes the Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party) and communist formations, including the young Aam Aadmi Party (Ordinary Person’s Party), which already governs in Delhi, and a good number of regional parties. The sums, in any case, would have to dance a lot to tip the balance towards the unexpected.

The National Democratic Alliance, the conservative coalition led by Modi’s Hindu nationalist party, could win between 374 and 401 seats in the 543 Lok Sabha, up from the 2019 result, according to the India TV-CNX poll; The opposition would remain at 109-139 seats, but has maintained since the polls closed that the real count will be above 295.

The first swords of the formations have already launched their messages. “The opportunistic alliance […] “It has not resonated with voters,” Modi was quick to state on social media on Saturday, shortly after the polls were known. He called the members from India “casteists, communists and corrupt.” His goal, he said, “is to protect a handful of dynasties.” He added: “Throughout the campaign, they only improved their expertise in one thing: attacking Modi. This regressive policy has been rejected by the people.”

Hopeful messages from the Gandhis

This Monday, the former PdC leader Sonia Gandhi replied: “We have to wait and see,” according to the Indian press. Her son, Rahul Gandhi, one of the visible heads of the opposition and the last exponent of a key political dynasty in India after independence, has sent equally hopeful messages.

Win or lose, Pilot believes that the elections have been a battle “for the maintenance of the integrity, transparency and credibility of the constitutional bodies.” For seven decades, regardless of which party was in government, the institutional framework “was not undermined,” he points out. After the two terms of the BJP, the rule of law is “in question”, although “it has not collapsed”. Citing the examples of Russia, Pakistan and Iran, he adds: “The right to vote is not what defines democracy.” He questions the independence of the Election Commission, the selection of judges and the remote use of central investigation agencies against the opposition.

Almost 95% of the cases opened against politicians have targeted opposition leaders, according to the Indian media published last year The Wire. In February, with elections around the corner, the PdC announced that its accounts had been frozen due to an alleged case of non-payment of taxes. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who leads one of the rising parties in the opposition coalition, was jailed in March on corruption charges, preventing him from participating in the early stages of the campaign. Last month, the Supreme Court granted him three weeks’ bail; On Sunday, after the polls closed, he returned to prison.

The economy has been another of the points on which the campaign has gravitated. Modi has entered the elections buoyed by a robust increase in gross domestic product. In 2023, India grew the most of the world’s large economies, and in the first three months of this year, it has exceeded predictions with a rate of 7.8% year-on-year. The BJP campaign has also highlighted investment in infrastructure and aid programs for the disadvantaged.

The opposition has responded with statistics that blur the supposed Indian economic miracle and show a harsher reality. The GDP per capita, for example, of about $2,410 in 2022, according to the World Bank, places India below countries such as Bangladesh and Ivory Coast. “How can you give free food to 800 million people and say you are one of the largest economies on the planet? It makes no sense,” Pilot concludes, referring to one of the aid programs launched by the Modi Government in 2023.

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