Covid continues to gain ground in Spain. All indicators are on the rise: infections, admissions and admission to intensive care (ICU) are on the rise. In the middle of the Constitution Bridge and with Christmas just around the corner, the epidemic curve continues to grow and places the incidence this Tuesday at 290 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days. They are 42 points more than last Friday, the last day that data were offered, since Monday was a holiday and there was no daily report. The vaccination cushion – about 80% of the population has completed the vaccination regimen – is having an effect and the pressure on hospitals is less than in previous waves, but the rise in infections is not safe for health centers: income They have shot up almost 32% in the last week and there are already more than 5,000 people hospitalized because of the covid, 948 of them in critical condition.
In just one week, the incidence has increased by 40% and the experts’ forecasts are that the epidemic curve will continue to rise. The breeding ground is already on the table: in the dead of winter, people spend more time indoors, often poorly ventilated, and this favors the spread of the virus; In addition, with holidays and Christmas celebrations in between, social encounters and mobility also increase, other factors that fuel the circulation of covid. All this, added to the few social restrictions on the street – only the use of the mask indoors, the safe conduct of the covid passport to enter some spaces in certain communities and the recommendation to maintain social distance – facilitate the spread of the virus .
Spain closed the month of November with a transmission speed (the Rt, which measures how many people a positive infects) of 1.14. That is to say, for every 100 cases, another 114 are infected. This is a slightly lower level than the one registered on November 16, when a Rt. Of 1.30 was reached, but it is still above the threshold of 1 that marks the health authorities to keep the virus at bay. The peak of this new wave has not yet been reached.
In hospitals, the situation is still under control, but it is starting to get complicated in some communities. Although the care pressure is lower than last year at this time – the incidence then was 240 cases per 100,000, but there were more than 13,000 people hospitalized, 4,400 in the ICU – there are already five autonomies that are at a high level occupancy of their ICUs, with more than 15% of places occupied by patients with covid.
In this context of an ascending epidemic curve, the threat of the new omicron variant, discovered in South Africa a couple of weeks ago and that experts fear is more transmissible and that it partially escapes vaccines due to acquired mutations does not help either. According to him latest report from the Ministry of HealthIn Spain, 11 cases have already been detected through sequencing techniques, two of them without a history of travel to South Africa, although the number may continue to increase. The Canary Islands reported one case on Tuesday and the Balearic Islands another two.
There is still no conclusive evidence about the true threat that the omicron variant can pose, but the first indications are not very promising. The UK Government said on Tuesday that the first indications show that the omicron is “more transmissible” than the delta, after the Minister of Health, Sajid Javid, warned on Monday that there is already community transmission of this variant in the European country. Also the director of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC, for its acronym in English), Andrea Ammon, said Tuesday at a meeting of European Health Ministers in Brussels that the preliminary “data” from South Africa and of the United Kingdom “suggest that it is” more transmissible “and,” if so, the omicron would cover 50% of the infections in the next months in the European Union “.
Of that lineage there are already 634 cases in 23 countries of the EU and the European Economic Area. “At the moment, there are no serious cases or deaths among those detected, but it is still too early to decide what the level of danger is,” Ammon said. The head of the ECDC advocated “non-pharmaceutical measures, in addition to booster doses (…) starting with vulnerable adults over 40 years old.” Ammon also called for “strong measures” to stop the escalation of infections in Europe, which leaves incidences of over 2,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants within 14 days in territories such as Belgium or the Netherlands.
More than 5.8 million third doses
In Spain, however, communities continue to trust the evolution of the pandemic and the control of the epidemic curve for the purposes of vaccination and the expansion of the uses of the covid passport, which is already required to access restaurants, gyms or leisure night in various communities. Regarding vaccination, the Public Health Commission has just given the green light to the inoculation of the preparation against covid to children between 5 and 12 years old since December 15. Children under 12 years of age, the only population group that remains to be vaccinated, is currently the group that registers the highest incidences (498 cases per 100,000 inhabitants at 14 days).
Vaccination of minors will overlap with the booster dose to the prioritized groups in the vaccination strategy —For now, over 60, immunosuppressed, nursing home elderly, people vaccinated with the Janssen single-dose vaccine and health personnel. In total, more than 5.8 million third doses have already been administered: 71% of those older than 70 years and 38% of those punctured with Janssen’s drug have already received the additional dose.
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