The Ibex 35 has become more animated as Thursday morning progresses and at times has surpassed the level of 12,070 points. The initial increases of a couple of tenths have given way to advances that exceed 1% after five consecutive days closing in green. In this way, the reference Spanish stock index not only beats the intraday highs of 2024, which were recorded in October at 12,037 points, but also reaches levels not seen since 2009. With investors returning to calm after the French political storm, the Spanish selective takes advantage of the inertia. The most benefited are banking securitieswith BBVA, Sabadell, Santander and CaixaBank registering increases that have exceeded 2.5%.
In it technical planthe Ibex 35 has been able in the last few hours to chase away the specter of seeing a loss of support that would automatically return it to the area of 11,130 points, which are the September lows, and has technically put itself in a position to go to look for new highs of the year after overcoming the resistance presented by the Spanish selective at 11,800 points. Now the selective has between eyebrows to close the year on a high and the first step is to manage to beat the psychological resistance of 12,000 integers, which is what stopped the increases during last October. “Exceeding 12,000/12,037 points would be another clear sign of strength that would open the door to increases until at least the growing resistance that arises from joining the different ascending relative highs since January 2023, which currently runs through the 12,400 points“, highlights Joan Cabrerotechnical analyst and strategist ecotraderwho explains that these levels are close to 4% away of this Wednesday’s closing levels.
Although somewhat more moderate than in Spain, the increases are the general trend in European trading floors. “Today investors in Europe will have to process what happened in France and assess whether the political crisis What the country is going through can have a more global impact on the region’s financial markets. At the moment, both the euro and bonds are calm, which indicates that investors are taking the issue in stride,” say Link Securities analysts in their daily commentary. Until the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, elect a new prime minister, the current government will remain in office, although it will not be able to approve the 2025 budget, so the most likely scenario is that the 2024 budget is extended, the analysis house points out.
One thesis of the good tone of the stock markets this Thursday is that investors had already been discounting a fall of the fragile government of Michel Barnier, to which both the alliance of the left and the extreme right of Marine Le Pen gave the final touch this Wednesday in a motion of censorship. “The markets seem to have partially anticipated this development of events, but repercussions can still be expected,” warns Alexandre Hezez, investment director of the Richelieu Group. “Any political or budgetary mistake could punish France much more severely on the markets.”
“Of At the moment, investors in Europe seem to have opted for take advantage of attractive ratings of many values, very far in many cases from their annual highs, to take positions in the region’s stock markets. Yesterday it was again the values of the retail distribution sector that did the best, encouraged by the news published in various media that suggest that the European Commission (EC) would be considering a tax to stop the increase in goods sold on websites of origin Chinese, such as Temu and Shein, who evade customs duties and controls,” these strategists add.
In the search for catalysts, the employment report November that this Friday is published in USA It can move Wall Street and the rest of the world’s stock markets if it leaves any clue about the immediate course of a Fed that may or may not cut at its December meeting. The report “can help many values and the main indices consolidate their recent advances,” Link Securities points out. More or less weak data can tip the balance of the Federal Reserve when it comes to whether or not to cut rates at the December meeting, as well as to project a faster or slower path of flexibility in 2025, which can be seen in the stock markets.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the U.S. economy on Wednesday did little to alter expectations implicit in market prices that the Fed will cut rates again in December. Meanwhile, two surveys showed that American executives became significantly more optimistic about the economy and the prospects for their own businesses after donald trump has won the elections. Precisely with his decision to appoint someone close to cryptocurrencies as the new head of the SEC (the US Securities and Exchange Commission), the bitcoin has reached the historic level of $100,000.
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