The first Sinn Féin Government in Northern Ireland resurrects the idea of ​​​​the island's reunification

Since this Saturday, Sinn Féin, for years the political arm of the IRA terrorist organization, has occupied, for the first time in its history, the seat of Chief Minister of the Autonomous Executive of Northern Ireland. The Stormont Assembly, as the Northern Irish Parliament is known, has appointed Michelle O'Neill, 47, born in Fermoy, County Cork, in the south of the Republic of Ireland, to the position. She was then the other side of the world, seen from Belfast, a city devastated at the time by the troubles (problems), the euphemism used to refer to sectarian violence that pitted Protestants and Catholics against each other.

“The days of second-class citizens are gone. Today is confirmation that they will never return. As an Irish republican, I am committed to co-operating, with sincere effort, with all my colleagues in British Unionism,” O'Neill said in his speech to the Assembly, minutes after taking up her position as Chief Minister. Outstretched hand to his political rivals, reaffirmation of the region's social and economic priorities – better healthcare, more accessible housing… -, and a defense of the opportunities offered by the special situation of Northern Ireland, with one foot in the United Kingdom and another in the EU, to grow. The new chief minister did not want to influence the future possibility of unification. The historical symbolism of her choice said it all.

The answer came from Emma Little-Pengelly, the unionist appointee to the position of deputy chief minister. Her kind words and promises of collaboration with O'Neill restored a hopeful atmosphere of dialogue in the Assembly. “We are defined by the past, but not conditioned by it to build our future,” Little-Pengelly promised. “The challenges faced by many families in Northern Ireland do not distinguish between Catholics or Protestants (…) People are asking us to work together. Michelle is a Republican; I, unionist. That won't change. But we both know that only everyone's economic growth will take us forward.”

Since the Good Friday Peace Agreement was signed in 1998, republicans (supporters of reunification, such as Sinn Féin) and unionists (defenders of Northern Ireland remaining in the United Kingdom) have been obliged to share a government. And that has been the case, except for the periods – like these last two years – in which one or the other decided to block the functioning of the institutions for their own political interest.

But the system was designed so that unionists always won the elections. All this time, Sinn Féin resigned itself to occupying a second position in co-governance, the seat of Deputy Chief Minister.

That was the game for a while. Brexit, largely rejected by the Northern Irish in the 2016 referendum, altered this. Anger at what in their eyes was a betrayal by London – the design of a Northern Ireland Protocol that kept the region within the EU's internal market and customs space – sowed the seeds of internal division in the ranks. unionists. Its fragmentation allowed Sinn Féin to win local elections for the first time in a quarter of a century of autonomy in May 2022.

Only the rejection of the main Protestant formation, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP, in its English acronym), to the formation of a new Northern Irish Assembly and Executive has prevented O'Neill from being Chief Minister during this time.

The agreement reached this week between the Government of Rishi Sunak and the leader of the DUP, Jeffrey Donaldson, which grants the unionists extraordinary guarantees that the traffic of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland will be practically free of customs controls, has managed to unblock the situation. Everything was more flexible since London and Brussels signed the so-called Windsor Framework Agreement in February last year, which put an end to a devilish dispute between the United Kingdom and the EU regarding the fit of Northern Ireland in the post-Brexit era.

With the pact closed between Sunak and Donaldson – more symbolic than effective in its content, as demonstrated by the fact that Brussels has not objected – the unionists feel more secure in their constitutional mooring to the future of the United Kingdom. For now.

Unification, within reach

Some things seem impossible until they happen. In recent months, the memory of the reunification of the two Germanys has been present in many conversations in the United Kingdom or Ireland. Even then, the idea of ​​bringing together two such asymmetrical blocks economically, politically, socially and culturally was not convenient. Until the citizens of the east began to knock down bricks from the wall. A “black swan”. This is what the essayist Nassim Taleb, with enormous success, called the surprise events that change the rules of the game.

“In historical terms, [la unificación] is within reach. “I think it is a very exciting moment, and I trust that everyone welcomes a necessary conversation,” Mary Lou McDonald, the president of Sinn Féin (on both sides of the island), celebrated last week, upon learning that her party had finally He would occupy the head of the Northern Irish Government for the first time.

The Good Friday Agreement leaves in the hands of the minister for Northern Ireland (of the British Government) the power to call a consultation “if at any time it is considered probable that a majority of voters are willing to support Northern Ireland ceasing to be a party.” of the United Kingdom and is part of a united Ireland.” Voters, it is understood, on both sides of the invisible border that today divides the island.

The most recent survey, carried out last December by Ipsos B&A for The Irish Times, offers striking results. The change of opinion is still far away. But not that far. In the Republic of Ireland (in the south, as the Republicans prefer to call it), 66% of citizens would support unification. In Northern Ireland, only 30%, compared to a rejection of 51%.

But the key, many understand, is the increasingly shared will on both sides of the line that the time has come to consult the people. 59% of Northern Irish people, according to the survey, want there to be a referendum on unification. Among Protestants, that support is a surprising 39%. In theory, what they express is the desire to settle the matter once and for all. But no one knows in which direction a black swan can fly.

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