The publication of the CPI data in the United States for December and the modification of market expectations regarding when the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will arrive in 2025 has caused a change of pace in the US stock markets. The VIX, known by the nickname fear index and in charge of measuring market volatility, has accentuated its corrective trend following the opposite path to that marked by equities that rise during the stock market session this Wednesday.
While the VIX has fallen almost 9% in the last few hours up to 16.7 points ” title=”Wall Street rises strongly after inflation and results”>S&P 500 maintains the pulse with increases close to 2% until approaching again the 6,000 points lost at the end of last December thanks to an inflation that surprises the market for the better with an underlying that falls for the first time in the last six months and despite that it still registers relatively high levels – 3.2% year-on-year – and that the general consumer price index (CPI) rose two tenths last month to 2.9% year-on-year, as expected.
The issue that the market is using to raise is that the underlying CPI data, weaker than expected, has offered a certain halo of hope to investors, especially after last Friday’s employment figures, that the Fed can advance from September to July the first rate cut of this year.
The change of third in the VIX this Wednesday arrives after it has risen in recent days to a level close to 20 pointswhich led last Monday to exceed the 11% rebound so far this year after spending most of the last twelve months hovering in the current area below 20 points.
Likewise, investors expect that 2025 will not be an easy year in terms of volatility since everything indicates that it will increase after Donald Trump takes power in the United States on January 20 and the foreseeable measures that he is considering taking in the future. diplomatic context – with Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal in the spotlight – and on international trade due to the tariff war announced against China and, to a lesser extent, the European Union.
Political uncertainty in the White House threatens to tighten the rope of volatility over the next few months. During his first term, Trump implemented tax cuts, favored large companies and focused on Beijing in trade matters, which caused sharp movements in the markets, but also boosted sectors such as energy and technology or defense.
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