Berlin – The beginning of 2024 does not bode well for the German Government. The social and political climate has worsened after the outbreak of peasant protests throughout the country due to the measures to cut subsidies for the sector. With their tractors they have been blocking highways, streets and roads since mid-December and the situation is not on the way to being resolved. On the contrary, the crisis is taking on even more complex political overtones since the active participation of far-right groups in the demonstrations became known.
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The problem represented by the fiscal hole of 60 billion euros (about 65 billion dollars) faced by the German tripartite of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals is much more serious than assumed. After an adverse ruling by the Constitutional Court, the Government has had to review all its forecasts and with them begin a process of cuts that leaves several people affected.
The rural sector has been one of the first to react after the announcements of the elimination of the diesel subsidy and the introduction of a tax on agricultural vehicles, which until now were exempt. Towards mid-December 2023, the first protests emerged in Schweinfurt, in the north of the Bavarian region. Days later there were hundreds of tractors in several cities carrying an improvised flag with the motto: “Wir haben die Schnauze voll”(“we are tired”).
The Minister of Agriculture, Cem Özdemir, warned in those last weeks of the year that the Government's measures “exceeded the pain threshold” of the agricultural sector. However, his cabinet colleagues moved forward with the cut, demonstrating that consensus on the matter was non-existent.
The growth of the protests led the Government to approach positions and review part of its measures, but it was too late. The peasants' demands are intransigent and even go beyond this particular conflict: the cry seems to have become a protest against the Government as a whole.
Polls: An unpopular Government
According to data from public opinion institute Infratest dimapthe federal government lives his worst moments of popularity since the coalition was formed, in December 2021. Only 17% of Germans are happy with their work. All of his ministers have worsened their ratings, reaching levels below 30% approval. And it is the chancellor, Olaf Scholz (SPD), who is rated the worst, with just 19% satisfaction with his work.
These surveys contrast with the high levels of support that peasant protests receive. In fact, more than 80% consider the claims fair, according to a measurement by the consulting firm Forsa. Data that, if disaggregated by party sympathies, show that not only those close to the opposition, but also the majority of voters of the government parties support the farmers.
Infiltration and extremism
This claim began to become a much more complex problem when the vice-chancellor and minister of Economy and Climate Protection, Robert Habeck (Greens), suffered the fury of a group that prevented him from getting off the ferry in which he moved with his family after the Christmas holidays. The event generated a debate about the limits of the protests.
“I am concerned that some of the demonstrations have become very rough and that right-wing extremist and anti-democratic groups have infiltrated them,” says Alena Buyx, president of the German Ethics Council.
According to Buyx, the right to protest and demonstrate in a democracy is very important, but at the same time a more respectful approach would facilitate negotiations and eventually finding a solution to the conflict.
It is in that sense that The appearance and even the prominence of some figures from the extreme right has set off alarms of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Basic Law, an organization that is responsible for investigating antidemocratic actions in the country. In fact, for the farmers' organizations themselves they represent a problem since their mere presence delegitimizes the protest and generates rejection in the general population.
The far-rightists take advantage of the conflict to promote their anti-democratic and anti-government slogans. This is a very effective strategy for these groups to redirect outrage about a specific issue towards their political goals. The protests during the pandemic are an example of this.
In this context, the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) also chooses to join the peasants, although in reality your party program demands the elimination of subsidies. A contradiction that seems to matter little to his spokespersons, who in recent days have spoken out in favor of doubling subsidies and eliminating taxes.
The undesirable dilemma of the opposition
In a year with several important elections, such as the European ones, the regional ones in three eastern regions and the communal ones in half of the “Bundesländer”, the Government faces a new, very likely electoral setback, which would cause a political earthquake.
Something that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has not stopped analyzing: “If [el gobierno] fails, the possibility of holding early federal elections on June 9, the same day as the European elections, could be considered,” the leader of that force, Friedrich Merz, declared last December. In fact, a survey from November 2023 already indicated that the 41% supported the idea.
However, the center-right party has a major problem, especially in the territories of the former GDR (former East Germany). There AfD exceeds 30% of voting intention and, if it maintains those numbers, would force the CDU to have to face the dilemma that until now it had been able to avoid: agreeing with the far-right to form governments in those regions or make agreements with other parties such as the social democrats, the greens and even Die Linke (the post-communists).
The damage that these scenarios could generate would surely have repercussions at the federal level.
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