—Are they stopping the US attacks on the Houthis?
-No.
—Are they going to continue?
-Yeah.
This brief dialogue between journalists and President Joe Biden this week summarized in two lines the position of the United States in the Middle East. The White House did not, under any circumstances, want a conflict in the region, much less in an election year, but it is increasingly drawn into a crisis in which points of tension are multiplying, while dealing with the opposing demands of its Arab and Israeli allies. Domestically, his positions on the war continue to garner Democratic criticism with less than 10 months left until the November 5 presidential elections.
Washington's position in the conflict—it supports Israel, alleging this country's right to destroy the radical Palestinian militia Hamas and defend its security, and provides it with weapons while demanding restraint and care for civilian lives—has left it between a rock and a hard place in the Middle East, as the number of Palestinian civilian victims in Gaza increases, now close to 25,000.
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As criticism from other nations mounts, and its credibility as a defender of human rights plummets especially in the Global South, the United States desperately needs to prevent the war from expanding, respond to its enemies forcefully but without causing an escalation, and satisfy to partners with disparate interests. On the one hand, the Arab countries demand that he exercise his influence to control Israel and achieve an end to the war; At the same time, Israel almost completely ignores their pressure and insists on continuing the offensive until Hamas is eliminated.
The spotlights proliferate. This Saturday, several missiles launched by pro-Iranian militias hit the Al Assad air base, of the coalition he leads in Iraq, and left several injured. In Israel, after weeks in which tensions between the two capitals have been increasingly evident, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has flatly refused to accept a Palestinian State, the pillar on which Washington bases its project for the Middle East. for the day after the war. Israel, the Likud leader assured on Thursday, needs to maintain security control of “all the territory west of the Jordan.” The Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen continued attacks against ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, despite five US airstrikes in a week against that group's targets to neutralize their ability to strike.
The White House insists that its strategy remains in place. In his four trips to the region since the conflict broke out in October, the head of US diplomacy, Antony Blinken, has been drafting a proposal that provides, in exchange for Israel's “yes” to a Palestinian State, the collaboration of Saudi Arabia. Saudi in the reconstruction of Gaza, and—the highlight of the offer to Netanyahu—the normalization of relations between Israel and Riyadh.
Demilitarized Palestine
In brief statements to the media shortly after speaking with the Israeli prime minister, Biden maintained that the two-state solution is possible during Netanyahu's term. And that this does not rule out “all” the possible forms of a future Palestinian State. One option to make the proposal more acceptable to the Israeli leader, as Biden explained to reporters, would be a demilitarized Palestine. “There are several member countries of the UN that do not have their own army. “Several countries that have limitations.” “I think,” he added, “there are ways this could work.”
“It really is the only path that brings peace and security to everyone and, furthermore, it is not something impossible, it is something that can be achieved,” defended the US National Security Advisor, Jack Sullivan, this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos. (Swiss).
Faced with the optimism of the White House, other experts are more skeptical that Israel can now accept something to which it has placed more and more obstacles over the last quarter of a century. “The Administration seems to believe that one of the ways it can get Israeli approval is through Saudi Arabia, basically promoting normalization and getting the Israelis to change their tactics in Gaza. But that is unlikely to happen. “Right now, Saudi demands and requirements on Israel are too high,” says Steve Cook of the think tank Council on Foreign Relations, by videoconference. Riyadh demands a ceasefire as an essential condition to address its participation in the reconstruction or normalization of ties with Israel.
The complications for the United States in the region were also evident this week 2,200 kilometers from Israel, in the waters of the Red Sea, where Houthi groups backed by Iran harass merchant ships with missiles and drones without the five US attacks in one week against targets of that militia in Yemen have arrested them.
In this case, Washington has opted for a combination of moderate use of both force – its attacks have been limited in scope – and its diplomatic tools, to avoid an escalation in which Iran would become directly involved. Earlier this week, it included the Huthi movement on its list of Specially Designated Terrorist Groups, an initiative that imposes economic sanctions against the militia, but does not go as far as those that would have represented its entry on the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. In addition, it has given a period of 30 days for the entry into force of the measure to minimize the impact on the entry of humanitarian aid to Yemen, according to the White House.
In itself, the designation as a Specially Designated Terrorist Group will not have a great impact, believes Kirsten Fontenrose of the think tank Atlantic Council. “But it is important for the United States to demonstrate that it uses all its tools as a State, and not just military measures, to ensure that the international community clearly perceives that the country acts responsibly and in the interest of the world,” the expert clarifies.
The US military response has also been relatively moderate. Preliminary US calculations consider that their forces have destroyed a quarter of the Houthis' attack capacity. The Biden Administration insists that it does not want a confrontation with this Islamist militia or an expansion of the war in Yemen, but the group's attacks forced them to intervene to protect a sea route through which between 12% and 15% of the world trade. “We remain committed to resolving the conflict in Yemen” and a lasting ceasefire between that group and Saudi Arabia, a senior official said this week, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“The US could not afford to let its warnings about serious consequences if the activities [hutíes] were perceived as something hollow. Other hostile powers beyond Iran, such as Russia or China, could immediately try to capitalize on any sign of American weakness,” considers Michael Nagata, of the Middle East Institute in Washington. “But these air strikes do not provide a strategic solution, even if they are necessary,” he points out. As long as Iran maintains its ability to support its network of affinity groups in the region, “vital points like the Red Sea will become more and more vulnerable. And the United States cannot defend everything.”
Internal rejection
Biden's problems in the Middle East also extend to the internal terrain, where discomfort over the bloody Israeli offensive in Gaza is spreading among Democratic ranks. This Friday, five senators from this party joined in supporting a measure that already has 18 sponsors in the Upper House and would condition US military assistance to Israel on this ally using that weaponry in accordance with international law.
Another Democratic amendment seeks to ensure that Congress must approve arms transfers to Israel, to prevent Biden from overriding the institution to order those shipments, as he did twice in December. Earlier this week, 11 senators backed a proposal by Rep. Bernie Sanders that would force the White House to examine possible Israeli human rights violations.
All in all, “the most worrying source of turbulence” for the Administration “comes from the lack of progress in preventing a broader regional escalation,” notes Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute. “The events of the last week, including continued attacks in the Red Sea, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, as well as the conflict in Gaza, point to the weakness of the position that the Biden team set when this conflict began more ago. 100 days […]. The turbulence of recent weeks may point to new problems ahead,” this analyst concludes.
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