The response that the EU has had to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine consolidates it as a leading international actor that until now did not seem to have so much power in this type of conflict
In the early hours of February 24, 2022, Russia’s brutal aggression against the sovereign state of Ukraine took place, a very serious act contrary to Public International Law that totally violates Article 2 of the Charter of the United Nations. This invasion has already caused hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries and hundreds of thousands of displaced persons and refugees, in addition to countless material damages and the suffering of Ukrainian society.
Why is Russia currently threatening and carrying out a troop movement and invading Ukraine through the use of completely disproportionate force and with great harshness? Russia feels threatened, not by the consequences of possible attacks by military forces, whether from NATO or other international actors, but rather by Ukraine and neighboring countries, with the exception of Belarus, since these they are slowly but increasingly transforming into democracies still unconsolidated, but tending to resemble European ones.
The real concern is not about possible NATO deployments in Ukraine or neighboring countries. It is found that Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and even Armenia and Azerbaijan, are moving closer to a democratic system equivalent to the one existing in the rest of the European countries, which will mean, at the same time, closer relations between these countries and the European states. These relations will be of an economic and social nature and also of free movement of merchandise, capital and people.
Nor does Russia like the approach of the Balkans to the European Union, specifically, the fact that some of them join the EU, such as, for example, Serbia and Montenegro, which is likely to happen sooner rather than later. And even that the confrontation between Serbia and Kosovo be resolved. Likewise, it is supporting, to a large extent, the Hungarian government of Viktor Orban, in order to maintain added tension within the European Union.
The danger of neighbors approaching democracy
In other words, the problem is not that Russia feels threatened militarily. There is no reason to think that Ukraine or other neighboring countries, or the Balkans, or indeed any European country, would threaten Russia militarily. This possibility is not in any order of ideas, the real threat posed by the European Union is the fact that for an autocratic regime like the Russian Federation its neighboring States are moving closer to democracy.
That is why Russia wants to maintain the old Cold War system of bloc politics and ‘areas of influence’, which is now out of place and therefore each sovereign state can adopt whatever political regime and foreign policy it deem appropriate.
Strong response from the EU
Possibly, the forecasts of the Russian Government are not being achieved and the invasion is being delayed more than expected, and this is making the Kremlin authorities nervous. This is what explains the allusion to the possibility of using long-range nuclear missiles, which are also being installed in Belarus (despite the fact that this was a neutral and non-nuclear country) thanks to a change in the Belarusian Constitution. in less than 48 hours.
In the planning of the aggression, possibly neither the resistance of the Ukrainian army nor the Ukrainian people has been taken into account, nor the decisive decisions and sanctions adopted by the European Union, unanimously, in which the 27 countries, including Hungary, have participated. (who was taken for granted that he was going to veto these sanctions).
What Putin did not expect
Putin and his Government also did not take into account that the European Union established drastic sanctions, which had never been adopted until now, consisting of economic measures, closure of airspace, the partial exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT Code for international transfers, the closure of the airspace to Russian companies or the decision to finance through the European Peace Support Fund with two large blocs the purchase of military weapons and peaceful defensive weapons (such as bulletproof vests), approved on February 28.
Perhaps the most important thing is that these support measures for Ukraine, as stated by the High Representative, Josep Borrell, before the European Parliament on March 1, is that they are also hard law, and are influencing the behavior of other states. In this way, the position of the European Union is being consolidated as an international actor that until now did not seem to have so much power in this type of conflict. We hope that the solution through the negotiation of the aggression will come about immediately and with the withdrawal of troops from the entire Ukrainian territory.
This article has been published in The Conversation
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