Friday, July 5, 2024, 6:37 p.m.
The new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, has promised a government of stability and moderation in his speech in Downing Street, after receiving the invitation from the King to form a government. He aspires to a “national renewal without noisy spectacle”, to “fight until the population regains confidence in politics” and to “treat every person with respect”.
After warning that the reconstruction of the country cannot be immediate, that it will be “done brick by brick”, he entered the official residence of the head of government with his wife, Victoria, to lay the first brick of his mandate, the formation of a cabinet that will have to manage British politics with a comfortable absolute majority in Parliament of some 175 seats.
In a day typical of British politics, the outgoing Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, wished Starmer every success, describing him as “a respectable and generous man for whom I have respect.” His replacement began his speech by praising Sunak’s merit for having become the first head of government of Asian origin and “the dedication and diligence of his leadership.”
The final straw was when Starmer was welcomed to Downing Street by Cabinet Secretary Sir Simon Case, who has worked with Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak and will now help to establish the new government. Unlike Tony Blair, who had no experience of government, Starmer had experience as a State Prosecutor and has staff members familiar with the public administration on his team.
The rituals of transition have been ordered, but the results of Thursday’s election are a shock to the British political system. The Labour Party won 412 seats, but the national vote share was 33.7%. The Conservative Party was supported by 23.7% of voters. The 10-point lead is smaller than the polling firms had predicted.
Labour has benefited from the majority system, which has left the Conservatives with 121 seats. Former prime minister Liz Truss, the defence minister and the justice minister, the heads of education and science in Sunak’s last cabinet, the minister for the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt, a persistent contender for the leadership, and influential MPs in Parliament have lost their seats.
The rejection of the Conservatives after fourteen years of government has left them without any seats in Wales. Tactical voting has caused huge losses for the Tories, to the benefit of Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the latter especially in traditionally conservative constituencies in the south of England. They have obtained 71 seats, the highest number since 1923. It weakens the two-party system.
Surprises in Scotland and Ulster
But the main cause of the defeat on the decisive day was the more than four million voters of the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage. Winning four seats with a national vote share of 14.3%, these millions emerged on the night of the ballot count as shifts to Reform by Tory voters in 2019. This has also happened to Labour, but the effect on the Conservatives is on another scale.
The 14 years of Conservative rule began in 2010, with a coalition government between them and the Liberal Democrats. It showed the difficulties of the party that has governed the United Kingdom for the longest time in achieving majorities. One obstacle was the diversion of Tory votes to the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) led by Farage.
Conservative members and voters, including MPs in the parliamentary group, identified with radical Euroscepticism. Prime Minister David Cameron wanted to end the burden of this internal division by calling the Brexit referendum in 2016. The 14-year cycle ends with the party in a more compromised position than before.
Members are demanding a greater role and, when they have had the chance to choose a leader, they have always rejected the moderate and pro-European supporters. The parliamentary group is riven by ambitions and enmities. Among the first conservative voices, it has been common to advocate a change that “listens to what the people want” after the results were known.
Sunak has promised to stay on until the party organises a succession. The coming weeks will indicate the direction of a divided political force that Farage wants to destroy with victories in local elections or to replace MPs. He wants to be the opposition to Labour and win the elections in 2029. “You have seen the first step of something that will astonish you,” he announced after winning four seats.
The situation for the Scottish National Party is no better. It has lost 38 seats at Westminster. It is a major blow for the pro-independence party.
In Northern Ireland, the shock to the system is the loss of three seats by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which is left with five seats, less than the seven of Sinn Féin, which abstained in the Parliament in London. The DUP is also behind in votes. A unionist who is a radical critic of the 1998 Peace Agreement has taken from them the seat of Antrim, which the Paisley family, founders of the party, had held for decades.
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