There is a country to which all developed economies usually look in an attempt to glimpse what their future can be. The rapid development and premature aging of Japan have turned this country into the ‘guinea pig of the Indies’ to explore what can happen when, for example, Europe, reach similar levels of aging. Well, made quite surprising or, at least, striking has been the collapse of gas consumption in just over five years. Although the economy has continued to grow (although very slowly) and GDP per capita has increased, Gasoline consumption has fallen 15% since 2019 in Japan. The most logical response to argue this descent would be the electric car and its implementation, however, the electric car has hardly to do (the Japanese do not want electric cars) and it seems that there are other much more powerful forces such as the population aging itself, the proper functioning of public transport and the efficiency of hybrid cars.
The International Energy Agency (AIE) stood out in his latest monthly report This trend that gains strength in the most aged country in the world. In Japan, one in ten people is over 80 years old and the workforce is increasingly aging and stagnant: “Gasoline deliveries in Japan fell 2.1% in 2024 and approximately 15% below prepaandemics are located. This occurs despite a very slight growth of GDP during the period and reflects a constant decrease in the country’s age population, which slows the underlying demand for mobility, “says the report.
The rapid aging and the decrease of the Japanese population pose important challenges for the economic growth and social welfare of the country. An increasing number of people of working age must sustain a growing retired population. The costs of medical care are rising, and the growing number of older people and the aging of the workforce are triggering a wide range of social problems. For example, Depopulation in rural areas is acceleratingleaving high concentrations of elderly citizens who need more services, while the number of suppliers of these services collapses (this could remember enough to the problems suffered by emptied Spain). “These challenges are not exclusive to Japan, but the scale and speed with which they are affecting the country are extreme; Japan is an omen of dynamics that will affect other parts of the world,” says Carnegie Endowment for International Peace experts.
The most aged country … and hybrid cars
In addition, consistently solid sales of hybrid vehicles have also reduced the consumption of gasoline per kilometer traveled. In addition, Japan is a highly urbanized country, with an excellent public transport offer. The kilometers traveled by car have decreased almost 8% in the seven years After 2017, but gasoline consumption has decreased faster still thanks to the best efficiency in the use of hydrocarbons themselves thanks to the strong implementation of hybrid cars.
Japan is a unique country for everything, also for automotive. One in eight cars sold worldwide were battery vehicles (VEB) last year, but In Japan the quota was only 2.2%a less penetration than in India or Southeast Asia, not to mention that in China one in four cars sold was already electric, while in France, the quota was 18% and 8.1% in the US. Automobile manufacturers around the world face numerous obstacles on the road to electrification, but Japan is unique by arguing that the transition not only involves a logistics challenge, but is fundamentally wrong.
The president of Toyota Motor, Akio Toyoda, argued in January that electric cars will never exceed 30% of the market share, for example. This really attracts attention because Japan was on its leader in electrification. In spite of all the merit that Elon Musk is attributed by the startup he founded in 2004, the Sony Group invented the lithium -ion batteries, while Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors already produced mass electric vehicles within a few months after Musk received the first Tesla Roadster. However, the Japanese prefer other cars: hybrids.
Japan is the global leader in the implementation of hybrid cars. Non -plug -in models have dominated sales for several years and represented 61% of total car shopping in 2024, the highest level among large economies. This has also allowed the efficiency profits of the fleet of around 1% per year, near the same rate as a country like the United States, but from a much more efficient starting point. That is, consumption per kilometer in Japan was already much lower and even so the descents are taking place at the same rate as in other countries that started from much higher points and that have a greater margin of improvement.
Nobody wants the electric car
“With a very reduced electric vehicle penetration in Japan, the slow improvement in fuel savings, Fruit of high sales of hybrid vehiclesit has been fundamental, “says the experts of the International Energy Agency. Together, the annual drop of approximately 1% in the distance traveled and the 1% improvement in efficiency reduces the consumption of gasoline by an average of around 2% annual.
Although the case of Japan is the most striking, underlying simular trends are observed in other important economies. For example, the United States, by far the largest gasoline market in the world, consumption remained stable in 2024, but is also below 2019, despite the increase in driving and substantial increases in GDP and employment. Implicit efficiency profits are also approaching 1% per year, but they are more due to the hardening of traditional internal combustion vehicles, while generalized teleworking has also reduced the use of the vehicle despite the strong recovery of the economy.
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