Brazilian diplomacy votes at the UN against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but Bolsonaro declares a stance of neutrality in the face of the conflict. Staying on the fence can take a toll, say experts. While the West shows itself to be united against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Brazil’s position is oscillating in a surprising way. “There is a very ambiguous attitude, not to mention schizophrenia, on the part of the Brazilian government,” says David Magalhães, professor of international relations at the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation (Faap), to DW.
“In the Security Council, the government has already joined other countries in a vote that was quite harsh against Russia.” On the other hand, the Brazilian government did not support the declaration by the Organization of American States that criticized the Russian invasion.
When you look at Bolsonaro’s personal statements, the picture gets even more confusing. “In the President of the Republic’s own personal manifestation, he has declared himself neutral. But a neutrality that I interpret as being sensitively inclined towards Russia”, says Magalhães.
But where does this schizophrenia come from? For the FAAP professor, there is a division within Bolsonarist groups, and it reveals different views on the conflict. “It has a nucleus that has been inspired by the Ukrainian extreme right, which rose with the Euromaidan demonstrations. On the other hand, there are groups that are inspired by the Putin regime, as it is an autocratic, conservative regime, very strongly linked to the Russian Orthodox Church and against the rights of minorities, such as the LGBTQI+ community and feminist movements.”
“It’s a basis that I call Christian religious nationalism”, summarizes Magalhães. Bolsonaro has never hidden his admiration for Putin’s authoritarian leadership figure, characterizing the Russian president as a conservative leader.
snooker
In a broader picture, taking a stand in this conflict puts Bolsonaro in a big snooker. If he supports Ukraine, he enters the picture with leaders that Bolsonaristas call “globalists”, such as Justin Trudeau, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz or Emmanuel Macron.
“On the other hand, there is a certain mistrust of taking an openly pro-Russian stance, as this puts Bolsonaro together with the Bolivarian left, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, which represents by far the number one enemy of Bolsonarism. This generates an impasse, or even a paralysis in relation to how to position yourself in this war.”
Therefore, Bolsonaro’s “schizophrenic” neutrality, to some extent and in part, is produced by this embarrassment that comes from both sides.
As a way out, Brazil tries to assume a position similar to that of India. Brazil’s vote and India’s vote in the Security Council are very similar in form and content.
For the Russians, Brazilian neutrality poses no problems. “It could generate a diplomatic problem and in economic relations with Russia if Brazil takes a stand or solidarity with Ukraine or vehemently against the Russian invasion. Then there could be some retaliation in the economic field,” said Magalhães. “But this position that Brazil takes does not harm bilateral relations.”
On the other hand, Bolsonaro’s personal leaning towards the Russian side will generate a backlash in the West. “Brazil’s image, which was no longer good in the international community, is getting worse. Most liberal democracies in the world reject Russian aggression. And Brazil isolates itself even more with this very ambiguous position.”
economic consequences
For economist João Ricardo Costa Filho, a researcher at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, the position of neutrality does not have an immediate effect on the Brazilian economy.
“In the short term, Brazil does not have any type of risk, as no one is very concerned about Brazil’s position in relation to this conflict. But depending on which side wins the war, the bill may come later. And it can come in many forms,” he assesses.
For Costa Filho, there may be consequences for future commercial or foreign investment agreements. That would be the case with the trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, which has been in limbo for two years. Thus, the position of neutrality can serve as an argument for those agents who were no longer very comfortable with the agreement.
At the time, the agreement was criticized by the European Union for the lack of environmental protection, especially in the Amazon, on the Brazilian government’s side. “Up front, when we need to move these agendas, it can make it a little more difficult.”
In the absence of an agreement with the Europeans, could Brazil increase its trade with the BRICS countries, to counterbalance? For Costa Filho, there is not much growth potential on this side. “China is already a great partner of ours, and Russia will take time to recover. It would be difficult for Brazil to rely on these financial or commercial exchanges to sustain long-term growth.” Thus, the conflict will bring less growth and more inflation to Brazil, assesses Costa Filho.
For economist Joelson Sampaio, specialist in Corporate Finance and Financial Markets at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, neutrality has no impact on the Brazilian economic scenario in the short term. “But staying on the fence can have not-so-immediate impacts. It would be diplomatic-political impacts, which then arrive on the economy,” he said. The most concrete would be a deterioration of trade relations with the United States.
On the other hand, the economic effects of the war itself would happen anyway, such as rising commodity prices and rising inflation in Brazil, assesses the expert. At the same time, raising these prices would help Brazilian exports.
“Many economists see this effect as a counterbalance to reduce the impacts of the war in Brazil. On the one hand, we have challenges via prices, but on the other hand, we may have a favoring of exports of important commodities to Brazil, an increase in volume with prices. And that will bring positive results to Brazil.”
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