The CIS gives victory to the PNV in the Basque elections with a narrow margin over EH Bildu

All the demographic studies known until now had given a technical tie between the PNV and EH Bildu in the Basque elections of April 21. These two formations are playing for electoral supremacy that day after more than 40 years of Peneuvist rule. The latest poll carried out by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), published this Monday, predicts a narrow victory for the PNV, which would also see its continuity at the head of the Government of Euskadi assured if it revalidates the pact it maintains with the Basque socialists. Just four days before the campaign starts, the CIS gives the party led by candidate Imanol Pradales an estimate of 36.1% of the votes, almost three percentage points above the coalition abertzale (33%). Between the two nationalist formations they would make up two thirds of the new autonomous Parliament, a representation similar to that which resulted from the previous elections held in July 2020, when the state of alarm was still in force to combat the covid-19 epidemic and strict rules were established. health and safety measures. The PSE and the PP would repeat the results obtained in that event, while the big losers would be Elkarrekin Podemos and Sumar, who are competing separately and could be left out of the Chamber. The only seat that Vox won four years ago is also in danger.

The CIS gives a victory to the PNV with a voting intention of 36.1%, almost three percentage points above EH Bildu (33%). This advantage translates into a higher projection of seats for Pradales' party, which would obtain between 30 and 31 seats of the 75 seats in the Basque Parliament and could repeat the 31 representatives it currently has. EH Bildu, with Pello Otxandiano as a candidate for the regional presidency, would experience a notable rise (in 2020 it obtained 28% of the votes), going from the current 21 seats to the 28-29 given by the poll of the public body that directed by José Félix Tezanos.

The Basque socialists, led by Eneko Andueza, with 13.1% of the votes, would maintain the current electoral weight and would have the current 10 seats assured or reach 11. If this forecast is confirmed, governability in Euskadi would be guaranteed with the repetition of the PNV-PSE alliance. These two political formations are, precisely, the ones that generate the greatest sympathies among those surveyed, with 19.7% and 10%, respectively.

The fourth party in voting intention is the Basque PP, to which the demoscopic work gives 7.7%, practically the same as that achieved in 2020. Its candidate, Javier de Andrés, could gather between five and six seats (he had six in the previous electoral appointment). The main leak of votes would occur in the area of ​​the left, which four years ago participated with the Elkarrekin Podemos brand. The new lack of agreement to run alongside Sumar would cause a relevant electoral setback in these two parties. The CIS gives Podemos 2.5% of the votes (7% in 2020) and between zero and one seat. Adding would achieve 3.7% of the ballots and between zero and two seats. Nor is the continuity of parliamentarian Amaia Martínez, who repeats as head of the Vox list, assured, since she would only get 1.9% of the votes and between zero and one seat.

The results produced by the CIS are slightly better for the PNV than those offered by the 40dB survey. made for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, published on March 25. In that work, this nationalist formation and EH Bildu were practically tied in voting intention and in projection of seats (28 each).

The CIS was delivered after interviewing 4,998 people between March 18 and 24 in 207 Basque municipalities. The Otxandiano candidate (EH Bildu) obtains a better rating than Pradales (PNV) among those surveyed, who give them a 5.64 and 5.48 out of 10, respectively. However, Pradales is the favorite to be the next lehendakari, receiving 30.4% support, compared to 26.1% who favor Otxandiano.

Respondents point out health (Osakidetza), unemployment and “political problems in general” as the three main problems that currently exist in the Basque Country. Health is highlighted by 16.1%, followed by unemployment (8.4%) and political problems (7.9%). Among these problems, which the interviewee points out spontaneously, nationalisms occupy 18th place and are cited by 1.1%.

20.2% will decide their vote in the last week of the campaign

40% of those surveyed claim to feel as Spanish as they do Basque, compared to 23.4% who feel more Basque than Spanish and another 23.3% who feel only Basque. 6.1% claim to feel only Spanish. Almost 71% of those surveyed say that, in these elections, they give more importance to the political party, compared to 17.1% who give it to the candidate. 40.5% state that they vote for one party or another, or do not vote, depending on what suits them best, compared to 29.4% who always vote for the same party and 24.7% who “for “They generally tend to vote for the same party.” 54.8% assure that they have decided which party or coalition they are going to vote for “long before the start of the campaign”, compared to 20.2% who state that they will do so during the last week of the electoral campaign.

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