Venezuela votes this Sunday in the consultative referendum on the historic territorial dispute it has with neighboring Guyana over the Essequibo, a jungle territory under Guyanese jurisdiction that is larger than what Portugal and Caracas claim. The atmosphere is one of tension and uncertainty. This is an issue with which Chavismo has raised the flag of sovereignty with which, on other occasions, it has opened international political fronts that allow it to navigate its internal tides. But this is, perhaps, the occasion on which he has gone further. The Government has deployed a huge nationalist campaign to promote a map of Venezuela that adds the territory of 160,000 square kilometers – rich in oil and minerals – of Guayana Esequiba, which is equivalent to two thirds of this small country and which both nations claim for themselves. .
Nicolás Maduro has entered into an intensive nationalist electoral campaign, while the opposition has managed to unite around the candidacy of María Corina Machado elected in primaries that have been successful to face him in the 2024 presidential elections. Billboards, concerts, merchandisingmilitary concentrations, incessant advertising on social networks demanding Essequibo for Venezuela.
On the other side of the disputed border, a war narrative has been created with more explicit movements. A few days ago, the Guyanese president, Irfaan Ali, in military fatigues, stood in the disputed area, a few meters from the border with Venezuela, raised his flag on a small hill and spent a night there with his military.
A new movement on the board occurred this Friday at the UN International Court of Justice, based in The Hague, to which Guyana turned to resolve the controversy and where it requested the suspension of the Venezuelan popular consultation because it was considered a threat. Chavismo has taken it as a victory that the organization has not explicitly suspended the process, although the United Nations court did reiterate its warnings to Caracas “not to do anything that modifies the situation on the territory that Guyana de facto administers and controls.” while the substance of the dispute over the territory analyzed by the court is determined, which is, precisely, the validity of the border defended by Guyana. The magistrates also expressed concern about one of the questions raised in the consultation. In the judicial decision, the court in The Hague asks the parties to refrain from any action that could aggravate or expand the dispute.
Sunday’s referendum is a consultative referendum that has raised alarm bells since it was announced, the day after the Venezuelan opposition held primaries that exceeded participation expectations. The seriousness may lie in some of the five questions posed to Venezuelans this Sunday, when all the voting centers in the country have opened and Chavismo also takes the opportunity to measure its muscle to mobilize the electorate.
The fifth question is the one that generates the most suspicion, since with it the Government seeks to receive popular authorization to create a state in the disputed territory and give Venezuelan identity to just over 125,000 people who live in that strip of jungle and who are already Guyanese. This has been interpreted as an occupation of the area in question with the support of the votes and some international analysts consider that the possibility of an armed conflict breaking out in Latin America is on the table.
“Never before has there been so much tension between Guyana and Venezuela as now,” says Rocío San Miguel, a security and defense specialist and director of the organization Citizen Control, with concern. At least not since the Rupununi rebellion in 1969, in which a separatist group of Amerindians asked Venezuela for support to create an independent district in the southern portion of the Essequibo and was repelled by the Guyana Armed Forces.
Internal policy
The referendum questions tell part of this old story that Chavismo has now dusted off. The first is aimed at rejecting the basis of Guyana’s argument to obtain the treatment that is the border drawn in the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899, in a decision considered rigged and partial in favor of the English who, with the creation of Guyana British in 1831, began to occupy a territory – larger than countries like England or Cuba – that although it was on the maps of the old Captaincy General of Venezuela since 1777, Spain had not populated and exploited and after independence, a Venezuela in ruins he was not in a position to possess either.
The second is to validate the basis of Venezuela’s argument: the 1966 Geneva Agreement, sponsored by the United Nations, as the only framework to resolve the territorial conflict and which established peaceful mechanisms that have not produced results and that half a century later have ended. in the International Court of Justice, after Guyana filed a lawsuit in 2018 that the court admitted two years later. In this trial the validity of the 1899 Arbitration Award will be determined.
Venezuelan analyst San Miguel warns that this process can have consequences not only in the international arena but also for domestic politics. For the lawyer, the referendum can become an instrument to discriminate between “patriots or traitors”, as happened during the Government of Hugo Chávez with the so-called Tascón List, that was done with the disclosure of the data of those who signed to overthrow former President Chávez. That information was used to persecute, make dismissals and filter loyalties in the Public Administration. The tension over this possibility is already on the street, in everyday conversation, in which people debate whether or not to vote and how this decision may affect them.
“On December 4 there will be no war,” says San Miguel. “But the conflict with Guyana will be directly proportional to the dangers that the Government faces on the way to the 2024 presidential elections.” Several of the questions in the referendum propose “opposing by all means” Guyana’s actions, which could become a blank check for the Government, says the specialist, to order a national mobilization to suspend the elections. 2024, an escape route from the possible loss of power if he is forced to authorize all candidates and give more concessions so that these are competitive elections. “This could happen in Venezuela with a button being pressed to exacerbate any border military clash that leads to the declaration of a State of Emergency.”
International geopolitics puts Venezuela at a disadvantage in a scenario like this in which Guyana is supported by powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom and even by the common neighbor Brazil. Starting in 2015, Guyana began granting maritime oil concessions in waters off the Essequibo, a recent exploitation that will soon make this small South American country the richest in the region in terms of per capita income.
Another of the issues that the consultations touch on has to do with Venezuela’s allegation that the UN court does not have jurisdiction in this case and with the third question it hopes to have popular support to carry out its threats to leave this international body of justice. . “This is the biggest mistake that Venezuela could make, because this is the space where it can present evidence and allegations,” says the expert. The court has given until April 2024 for Venezuela to present a written report on its position on the Paris Arbitration Award and the limits. In 2025, the court could be deciding the borders, and if Venezuela backs away, Guyana will surely take the lead.
But the referendum has been the flight forward with which Maduro has faced the mobilization that occurred in the primaries, in which María Corina Machado swept with 92% of the votes. The opposition leader has also raised her voice against the referendum, due to the harm it could cause for Venezuela in its defense at the ICJ. For this reason, she has also been criticized by Chavismo, which has turned the issue into a patriotic crusade for sovereignty.
Machado’s participation in the presidential elections, even though she is the unitary candidate, is on hold due to her disqualification. The recent mechanism for enabling candidates, announced on social media by Norway’s facilitators, which imposes a series of commitments on those interested in having their cases reviewed by the Supreme Court, somewhat crosses the issues. They are asked to participate in the process of “honoring and defending the homeland” and “safeguarding and protecting sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
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