“There are no excessively worrying elements of tension” between Beijing and Taipei on the eve of the vote in Taiwan, nor does there appear to be “any deviation from past statements” in the prior Chinese 'warning' to Washington on the occasion of the working meeting between Beijing defense officials and American colleagues. This was declared by sinologist Francesco Sisci, for whom the appeal to stop arming Taiwan, the request not to recognize its independence and the confirmation that there will be no concession from Beijing on this “are routine: there is no neither more nor less than the Chinese position in the past”. What is interesting, if anything, is the fact that military talks between China and the United States, interrupted for 4 years, have resumed, and right on the eve of the Taiwanese vote, as if the parties wanted to ensure that there will be no escalation and that the bilateral situation is under control. “.
“I don't see an excess of threat compared to other times from China which certainly continues to maintain its point, namely that reunification with Taiwan must take place. But there are no threats of the use of force, nor temporal ultimatums: no we know when this reunification should occur”, observes the expert, speaking to Adnkronos.
As for the vote scheduled for Saturday, “we'll see what happens: the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, i.e. the 'most anti-Beijing' one, should win, but it doesn't seem like he has the desire to make any changes in the form of a formal declaration of independence. The point is that Taiwan is independent de facto but de jure it is part of a single China so if it were to declare independence it would certainly be a disruption”, explains the political scientist.
The Americans, however, observes Sisci “have declared that they will not support a unilateral declaration of formal independence of Taiwan. This, in addition to the fact that in reality the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang – which has governed the island for decades – are children of same father, Sun-Yat sen, and they have had relations of peace, war and talks for over 100 years, makes me think that the two sides can control tensions well, what is called 'brinkmanship'. So I don't see any elements today excessively worrying about tension”, he underlines.
Much more worrying around China “are the question of North Korea, a sort of loose cannon, that of the South China Sea and the border between China and India”, underlines the political scientist. (continued)
“North Korea is worrying for various reasons, most recently the missile tests and the fact that last week we fired on some islands on the border with the South for two days in a row and that they have threatened that they do not want to suffer further provocations.” In the South China Sea, “with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the American fleet and now probably other NATO units it is less difficult for there to be an accident, because there are many fleets, many problems and there are no agreed meeting protocols”.
“And then there is the border with India, there are three thousand kilometers of not well-defined borders on which there are tensions and there have been very violent clashes in the past too. There are a thousand problems between China and India, the historical one with Pakistan, the greater Chinese presence in Sri Lanka, more recently the controversy with the Maldives”.
“At the end of the month – he recalls in conclusion – India will host a Quad summit, (the military agreement between the United States, Australia, Japan and India essentially with an anti-Chinese function): we need to see if the Quad will make progress in coordination between these countries and will perhaps expand to South Korea, which is possible in the near future.”
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