Taiwan holds elections marked by the geopolitical struggle between China and the United States

This crucial year of global elections, where almost half of the population is called to the polls – from India to the United States, passing through the European Union – begins with what is probably one of the most decisive events for the rest of the world. planet. Taiwan, the self-governed and democratic island that China considers an inalienable part of its territory and which has its greatest ally in the United States, is holding its presidential and legislative elections this Saturday under the long shadow of tensions between the two superpowers.

It is not another internal vote. In this place they never are. Its geopolitical reach has a high seismic potential. In Beijing's eyes, Taiwanese face a choice between “war and peace.” The result and its consequences will be a first thermometer of the agreement signed between the presidents of the two giants, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, at their meeting in November.

The polls to lead the Taiwanese Government have been led, until they stopped being published on January 3, by the current vice president, Lai Ching-te, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the least liked option in the Asian giant. He is followed in the polls by Hou Yu-ih, mayor of New Taipei – the most populated city in the country, which surrounds the capital, Taipei -, of the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT), a group that traditionally advocates greater rapprochement with the Republic. Popular.

The third in the fight is Ko Wen-je, from the young People's Party of Taiwan (PPT). Ko, a former doctor who has served as mayor of Taipei until 2022, has risen in the polls, especially due to his pull among young people, tired of the two traditional political groups and to whom he talks about solving day-to-day problems. , such as the high cost of housing.

Lai's first place was only briefly in danger with the ultimately unsuccessful attempt to reach an agreement to present a single candidacy among the opposition leaders. The KMT, in any case, does lead the polls for the Legislative Yuan (Parliament).

Lai, the current vice president, presents himself as guarantor of a path of continuity with the policies of the outgoing president, Tsai Ing-wen, also of the PDP. Due to legal term limits, Tsai steps down from power after eight years marked by the absence of communication with the People's Republic, growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and rapprochement with Washington. Lai defines himself before the 19 million voters of the territory as the best guarantor of “stability” and the maintenance of the current status quo. And he promises to further advance social rights, such as gay marriage approved in 2019 under Tsai's mandate.

“Peace has no price and war has no winners,” Lai defended this Tuesday during an appearance before the international press in which he praised the “solidity” of Taiwanese democracy. “Aspiring for peace” does not mean having “illusions,” she added. To maintain the aforementioned stability in this territory, where many look in the mirror of Ukraine since the Russian invasion of 2022, he has proposed “reinforcing Taiwan's defensive deterrence”, in line with the policies of the Executive of which he is a part, whose cooperation military with the United States has grown closer in recent times. “We are at the forefront of defending our values ​​against authoritarianism,” concluded Lai, who has denied that he is going to declare Taiwan's independence. “We don't have any plan. [de hacerlo]”, he said, “because the Republic of China, Taiwan, is already a sovereign independent nation.”

Beijing, which considers the island a rebellious province that it intends to reunify peacefully, but without renouncing the use of force if necessary, suggests that the PPD candidate hides a secessionist tendency, which “harms” the population of Taiwan and “jeopardizes” peace in the Strait. “In order to get more votes, Lai tries to hide the fact that, as a supporter of Taiwan independence, he is essentially a troublemaker and instigator of war,” Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, said in November. Taiwan from the Chinese Government, according to the state press of the People's Republic.

Beijing's favorite

Beijing's preferred candidate is Hou Yu-ih, of the nationalist KMT, the heir party of the faction that fled China in 1949 after being defeated by Mao Zedong's communists in the Chinese civil war. The defeated settled on the island of Taiwan, where they founded a kind of government in exile, under the leadership of the leader of the KMT, the dictator Chiang Kai-shek. They called it the Republic of China, thus giving rise to one of the most complex and volatile geopolitical conflicts, a holdover from the Cold War sustained to this day through extremely complex diplomatic contortionisms.

The KMT leader calls for an end to the eight years in power of the DPP, which he accuses of corruption and using an “internet army” and control of local media to attack him and his party for maintaining closer ties. with China, as he proclaimed at a rally on Sunday in the city of Kaohsiung. Hou often recalls his career as a police officer to explain that he understands the importance of negotiation while having the support of the force. His policy towards China is summarized in three words: “Deterrence, dialogue, de-escalation.”

Since the first free elections in Taiwan in 1996, KMT candidates have won the presidency three times (compared to four for the DPP), and have only governed for eight years this century. The last president of the KMT, Ma Ying-jeou (2008-2016) participated in a meeting in 2015 with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. But excessive proximity to the second economic power on the planet contributed to his defeat in 2016 by Tsai Ing-wen, who has never met face to face with Xi. In another recent sign of harmony with Beijing, former President Ma, who has actively supported his party's candidate these days, traveled to China in March — the first former president or Taiwanese president to do so. His unofficial visit had a high symbolic load: it coincided with Tsai's visit to the United States, which unleashed Beijing's fury.

International tension and internal tranquility

The elections are held in Taiwan in a strange atmosphere that combines international tension and daily tranquility on an island that has lived with the threat for more than seven decades. In a lively night market, sitting in front of a steaming plate of noodles fresh from one of the stalls, Kai Chang, 29, and Monica Pan, 27, commented this Tuesday that they will vote for Ko Wen-Je. “I see him working hard to solve the problems of young people, such as renting housing.” They complain about the very high prices, for which salaries are barely enough, about the impossibility of buying a house. And they believe that Ko is supported by his years at the head of the capital's mayor's office.

“He has a more practical and scientific approach than the other two candidates,” assesses this couple. Both have studied abroad; she works as a technology consultant; him, as a financial consultant; they live together. “In part I will vote for him because I am tired of there being only two parties. I would like a change,” says Kai. They also believe that the elections will decide the tilt of the balance with respect to China. His preferred candidate offers a position “in between” the KMT and the PPD: that of “maintaining the status quo”, being “independent”, but “willing to communicate” with Beijing.

While life flows, the
news reflects the high pressure around the territory. There is, for example, the multiplied presence of Chinese balloons flying through the skies near the island or directly its territory, which the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense has denounced as a “gray zone” tactic against Taiwan in “an attempt to use war cognitive to affect the morale of our people”; or the flights of Chinese fighter jets beyond the so-called median line that marks the unofficial division in the Strait, and which Beijing crosses with greater intensity in recent times. A record was broken in September, with 103 Chinese aircraft detected in 24 hours.

All of this is a reminder that there is much more than a Government at stake in these elections. In recent years, under Tsai's leadership, there have been moments of enormous tension in the Strait, especially since August 2022, after the visit to Taipei of Nancy Pelosi, then president of the US House of Representatives. The Chinese Government considered his visit to the island an affront, deployed large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, and broke ties with Washington in various fields—including the military. Those fractures have not yet fully healed.

During the recent meeting in San Francisco between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, the first after a year in which relations entered a downward spiral, the Chinese leader highlighted that “the Taiwan issue remains the most important and sensitive issue in relations between the United States and China.” He called on Biden to refrain from favoring Taiwan independence, to stop arming the island and to support the “peaceful reunification of China.” In his traditional year-end speech on December 31, Xi reiterated: “Without a doubt, our motherland will realize reunification.” This Saturday's elections offer an outpost to observe, on a small scale, the direction that the largest geopolitical pulse of the 21st century could take in the coming years.

Follow all the international information on Facebook and xor in our weekly newsletter.

_