Fridays for Future are calling for protests tomorrow, and from Monday the Last Generation wants to paralyze Berlin. But the number of participants in demos is falling.
Tomorrow, Friday, September 15th, Fridays for Future (FFF) and other parts of the climate movement are mobilizing again for demos and actions worldwide. Last generation activists want to paralyze the capital from Monday. Demonstrations are also planned in other countries and at the UN General Assembly in New York. Above all, they demand an exit from fossil fuels.
The activists, who are often young, are not satisfied with the consequences of their protest: “The climate movement is going through a difficult phase,” summarizes Greta Waltenberg. She is 21 years old and does campaign work for Fridays for Future. Young people have been demonstrating with the movement for climate protection for five years. While Fridays for Future managed to bring 1.4 million people onto the streets in Germany in autumn 2019, even after the last major demonstration in March, the movement only reported 220,0000 participants nationwide.
“A hard core is still there, but we have already had the attention of more people,” says Romie Niedermayer. The 21-year-old works, among other things, with the youth climate movement YOUNGO on international climate policy. With the pandemic, attention to the movement collapsed, and the numbers have not recovered to this day.
The movement in Germany has achieved partial success:
- The traffic light coalition is currently examining an earlier coal phase-out by 2030.
- The Federal Constitutional Court ruled, following a lawsuit from FFF, among others, that parts of the Climate Protection Act are unconstitutional.
- According to activist Waltenberg, climate has become a “top issue”.
Nevertheless, fewer and fewer people seem to be interested in the protests: “In some cases the declining attention is normal for social movements,” explains protest researcher Dieter Rucht. The success of protests is measured in ever-increasing numbers; even stagnation is a type of defeat. This demotivates some of the activists – and radicalizes others.
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More police, less acceptance
In Germany, the group Last Generation sticks to the streets, Just Stop Oil and Exctinction Rebellion choose similar methods of civil disobedience in Great Britain. With consequences: Since 2020, the proportion of police operations in climate protests worldwide has almost doubled, according to data from the non-governmental organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Accordingly, there are now police interventions in almost 40 percent of protests.
But that’s not the only change: According to a survey by the non-governmental organization More in Common, support for the climate movement in Germany halved from 68 to 34 percent from 2021 to 2023. A survey by the opinion research company Civey also came to a similar result. It is probably because of such numbers that many parts of the climate movement find it difficult to deal with groups like the Last Generation. Most activists hold back from open criticism, but criticize poor communication and a lack of willingness to cooperate. Nicolò Wojewoda, regional director at the NGO 350.org, criticizes that civil disobedience is “overused”. Protest researcher Rucht is less reserved in his criticism: civil disobedience is fundamentally a legitimate means, but the actions of the Last Generation are poorly organized, not targeted enough and the symbolism is “far-fetched”.
Future of climate protest
“The climate movement is currently at a crucial point,” says Wojewoda. “Climate is now one of the most important issues and we have reached the limits of what we can achieve with our current methods.” Other approaches and solutions are now needed that take political and, above all, economic aspects into account: “We have to show people the positive effects of climate protection,” he explains. Especially against the backdrop of rising costs, the climate movement must show that climate protection is also financially worthwhile. Climate protection must be seen as an intersection with well-being and prosperity. If the climate movement focuses on this, it can achieve greater success.
Scientist Rucht is more pessimistic: “There is no silver bullet for the future,” he says. Although a large part of the population currently sees climate protection as important, fewer and fewer support last-generation methods, for example. The increasing radicalization is counterproductive. If social support falls, the options for political action also decrease. He believes that only “external, serious events” that show the effects of the climate crisis can ensure that climate protest is taken more seriously again.
Demonstrations remain important worldwide
Despite everything, many activists hold on to the large demonstrations as an important sign and think global climate strikes are important. They could show how many people are behind the protests, says Greta Waltenberg. For Romie Niedermeyer, it is important that the diversity of the climate movement is shown during the protests: “We are so much more than the last generation and Fridays For Future.”
There will be protests not only in Europe in the coming days, the climate movement is organizing around the world to demand a rapid exit from the fossil fuel industries. These include the following actions:
- More than 3,000 participants are expected in Pakistan for the Pakistan Climate March.
- Around 100,000 demonstrators are expected to take part in the Global March to End Fossil Fuels in Abuja, Nigeria.
- Activists in Ecuador want to present a commission on Friday that will monitor the implementation of the referendum to stop oil drilling in Yasuní National Park.
- A March to End Fossil Fuels will also take place in New York, USA on Sunday. More than 10,000 people are expected.
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