Subdued congratulations from the left and an emboldened extreme right in Latin America after Trump’s victory

A few minutes before Donald Trump conquered the state of Pennsylvania, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro sent a message to a WhatsApp group: “Thank you my god. Congratulations, Donald Trump. Psalms 30:5: ”Weeping may last for a night, but joy will come in the morning.” Still during the early American morning, Bolsonaro launched his congratulatory message in English on the social network X: ”Today, we witness the resurgence of a true warrior. “A man who, after facing a brutal electoral process in 2020 and unjustifiable judicial persecution, has risen again.”

In an interview with Folha de São Paulo This Thursday, the former president of Brazil linked his destiny to the prophetic return of Donald Trump. His new victory, he acknowledged, is a “very important step” for his “dream” of contesting the 2026 elections and presiding over Brazil again. Bolsonaro, politically disqualified until 2030, suggested that Trump’s victory will lead to his political amnesty. The former president even stated that he wants to attend the inauguration of the American president despite the fact that his passport is seized by justice and he is prohibited from leaving the country.

Jair Bolsonaro’s reaction summarizes the enthusiasm with which certain Latin American right and extreme right groups received Donald Trump’s victory. From the Salvadoran Nayib Bukele to the Argentine Milei, through the Ecuadorian Daniel Noboa, the conservative governments of the region were full of praise for Trump. “Now, Make America Great Again. You know that you can count on Argentina to carry out your task. Success and blessings. Best regards,” Javier Milei wrote in English on the X social network.

“Candidates with hate speech are going to feel encouraged and with this, we will end up having very worrying speech again. An anti-vaccine denier is set to become health minister. All of this can come back with great force for the countries of South America,” explains Raphael Seabra, professor of Latin American Studies at the University of Brasilia, who believes that Trump’s election can feed extremist speeches in the region.

Trump’s return to power is a breath of fresh air for the Latin American opposition right and extreme right. If the battered Bolsonarism – cornered by justice and stalked by new radical right actors – has linked his destiny to the lifeline trumpistthe Venezuelan opposition is confident in a strong change of direction from the United States in the country.

In Chile, José Antonio Kast, leader of the Republican Party, described Trump’s success as “a new triumph of freedom and common sense.” Kast, a firm defender of the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, is already taking advantage of the American political scene to wear down President Gabriel Boric and to consolidate himself as an alternative in the Chilean presidential elections of 2025.

Resistance and cryptic messages from the left

From the other side of the political spectrum, progressive Latin American presidents congratulated Donald Trump with pragmatism and veiled messages. Gustavo Petro, president of Colombia, stated that “the only way to seal the borders is with the prosperity of the people of the south and the end of the blockades,” alluding to Cuba and Venezuela. In addition, he criticized American support for the Gaza war. The Chilean president, Gabriel Boric, sent a congratulation full of messages: “Chile reaffirms its commitment to strengthening the relationship with the United States in favor of inclusive development, respect for human rights and care for democracy in our region.”

For her part, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had a “very cordial” telephone conversation with Donald Trump on Thursday in which they spoke “about the good relationship that will exist between Mexico and the United States.” Despite the call for calm, Sheinbaum knows that the threat of mass deportations of illegal immigrants and a 25% tax on Mexican products if the country does not stop immigration from Central America will overshadow its relationship with its neighbor. north.

For his part, Lula da Silva, president of Brazil, sent a congratulatory message in Portuguese using the words “democracy,” “dialogue” and “peace,” and the phrase “democracy is the voice of the people and must be respected.” . Despite the announced pragmatism in his relationship with Trump’s United States, Lula knows that in 2025 he will be at the epicenter of the hurricane trumpist

Next January, Brazil assumes the presidency of the BRICSa bloc that after opening its doors to countries like Iran reinforced its anti-Western nature. Additionally, in November 2025, Lula will host the UN COP30, the largest environmental summit on the planet. On the other hand, the open battle between the Brazilian justice system and Elon Musk, who will almost certainly be part of the United States government, as well as the priority of the Venezuelan agenda already announced by Trump, place Brazil on the edge of the geopolitical knife. .

The return of Donald Trump to power is a splash of cold water for Lula. The possible withdrawal of the United States from the Paris climate agreement may wither the UN COP30 in the city of Belém, which will be held between November 10 and 25. The Brazilian president had strongly opted to host the COP in the Amazon, to involve the rest of the world in its conservation and fight against global warming.

In this way, Brazil even aspired to achieve a new global commitment to reduce carbon emissions. To this end, the Minister of Economy, Fernando Haddad, and the Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva, have been working together for months within the G20 that Brazil has chaired in 2024. The climate short circuit caused by Trump’s victory may begin during the Summit of heads of state on November 18 and 19 in Rio de Janeiro. The United States will hardly prioritize the environmental guideline and the new axis of the bioeconomy proposed by Brazil.

The biggest geopolitical challenge for Brazil will be presiding over the BRICS in 2025. After the recent meeting in Russia of the bloc’s presidents, in which Vladimir Putin gloated about having international support, the anti-Western image of the BRICS continues. in crescendo. The recent incorporation of countries such as Iran or the Arab Emirates and the resignation of Javier Milei’s Argentina leave Brazil as the only clear Western ally.

Lula faces the challenge of showing balance between the United States and China, while trying to fight against the hegemony of the dollar in international trade. The fact that the BRICS encourage commercial transactions in other currencies and that former President Dilma Rousseff presides over the BRICS Bank (based in China) place Brazil in Washington’s sights.

Brazil’s recent veto of Venezuela’s entry into the BRICS and the fact that to this day Lula has not recognized the official results of the elections in Venezuela that give victory to Nicolás Maduro may soften Trump’s spirits. However, one of the most feared conflicts in Brasilia is related to tycoon Elon Musk.

After the harsh stance of the Brazilian justice system against the disinformation of the social network . Musk, who has already defined Brazil as a dictatorship in which freedom of expression is not respected, can force Alexandre de Moraes, minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), to be prevented from entering the United States, as demanded by several Republican congressmen, of course attacking freedom of expression. Furthermore, the United States may cause interference in Brazil’s attempt to legislate fake news and Big Tech, as happened in April, when Musk blew up the PL das Fake Newsone of the most ambitious laws in the world in this regard.

During the early hours of the election on November 6, Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the former Brazilian president, was exultant. From Donald Trump’s headquarters in Florida he attacked Alexandre de Moraes: “They are going to put a kind of brake on him. Or do you think that Alexandre de Moraes is going to want to confront Minister Elon Musk?” he told a Brazilian media.

At the moment, Eduardo Bolsonaro claimed to be mediating so that the United States pressures the Brazilian justice system to return his father’s passport. The photo of Jair Bolsonaro next to Donald Trump in his presidential pose would mark the beginning of the Brazilian electoral pre-campaign of 2026, even if Jair cannot contest it. Eduardo, the former president’s silver bullet, hopes to capitalize on the resurgence of trumpism.

For her part, the Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has also congratulated the next US president, establishing herself as the winner of the elections in Venezuela – after highly questioned official results that gave victory to Nicolás Maduro: “President Trump, “The democratic government that we Venezuelans elected on July 28 (…) will be a reliable ally to work with your administration.”

“We know that we have the support of the people of the Americas and their democratic governments to ensure a transition to democracy without delay. And we also know that we have always counted on you,” said Corina Machado. Trump was one of the promoters of the path of confrontation with Juan Guaidó to try to overthrow Nicolás Maduro.