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In the first round of the French presidential elections, the polls predicted, as in 2017, a duel between the outgoing president, the liberal Emmanuel Macron, and the far-right Marine Le Pen. But this time, with a much narrower margin. Macron secured 27% of the voting intention and Le Pen, 23%, according to a survey by Opinionway-Kéa Partners.
Never in a French presidential election has the extreme right appeared so strong. For the first time, there are two candidates from this extremist current. Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour, between the two, have 33% of the intention to vote, according to opinion polls. One third of the French electorate. Has French society gone far right?
“It would be tempting to say so, but contrary to what many opinion polls seem to show, this is really just the electorate that shows up at the polls on election day and votes. It does not even include abstentionists, it is true that the French political spectrum has moved to the right, even to the extreme right, but this does not correspond to French society, which is more complex,” says sociologist Arsenio Cuenca, who studies extremism on the Internet in the CNRS, National Center for Scientific Research in Paris
The explanation to understand why the political spectrum has moved its cursor towards the extreme right, must be sought, according to the researcher, in the trivialization of issues that until recently were only used by the extreme right, such as immigration or identity nationalism. “When they become media issues and begin to permeate the mainstream, these discourses become trivialized and effectively contribute to these formations gaining more weight at the electoral level,” Cuenca analyzes.
Far-right voters are not homogeneous
The profile of voters is not monolithic. There is a distinction taking the French geography that realizes that the voters of the extreme right are very heterogeneous and that they have been evolving over time.
“In the north we can see a vote of popular classes of low social extraction that normally has to do with an anti-system claim, they are employees, workers and even the unemployed. The most important enclave is the Nord-Pas de Calais. In the south, in the PACA region, we find a more identitarian vote, of a higher social class, and that has much more to do with issues such as immigration, security or Islam”, says the researcher.
Internet and the rightization of discourse
“In social networks, one can release the word radical, extremist and reactionary without many inconveniences compared to the media”, recalls Arsenio Cuenca, who studies extremism on the Internet.
The researcher assures that there are accounts that supported Trump, that are pro-Putin and at the same time anti-vaccines and plotters. Now those same accounts convey messages of support for the extreme right on their networks.
“This has to do with an anti-system, non-conformist vote that deeply distrusts and denies the order of liberal democracy and parliamentary democracy that has no problem whitewashing authoritarian and nationalist leaders like Putin. It combines very well with the anti-vaccine discourse because it is a discourse that equally denies the political and scientific consensus. This is something that Marine Le Pen appeals to in her campaign when she appeals to these freedoms, freedoms that have to do with skipping the scientific consensus, ”clarifies Cuenca.
With Macron and Le Pen in the second round, the votes of the other far-right candidate, Éric Zemmour, could be shared between the two, according to Cuenca. “They will probably go to Le Pen, but seeing that Macron’s vote is that of high incomes and Zemmour’s compared to Le Pen’s, also and equally seeing the ease with which the Macron government has approached certain issues related with the far-right discourse, it is possible that a part of Zemmour’s vote will go to Macron, I don’t doubt it”, he concludes.
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