Der CDU-Bundestagsabgeordnete Roderich Kiesewetter war so aufgebracht, dass er sich von einer Dienstreise aus dem fernen Grönland einmischte. Gemeinsam mit 40 Parteifreunden kritisierte er seinen Vorsitzenden Friedrich Merz, weil er der CDU in Sachsen und Thüringen freie Hand lässt für Kooperationen mit dem Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, dem BSW. Schon vor Wochen hatte Kiesewetter gewarnt, das BSW agiere als „verlängerter Arm des Kreml“ und wolle die Union „als Volkspartei aushöhlen“.
Jetzt geht er noch weiter und erklärt, was der von ihm und anderen geforderte Unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss gegen den BSW bedeuten würde: „Man muss nicht um jeden Preis regieren wollen, jedenfalls nicht auf Kosten von Werten und politischer Orientierung“, sagte er der F.A.S. Gemeint ist: Bevor sich die CDU mit dem BSW verbünde, solle man diesen lieber mit der AfD regieren lassen, das sei offenbar der Wunsch der Ostdeutschen.
Derartige Widerreden kann Friedrich Merz gerade nicht gebrauchen. Monatelang hatten seine Strategen den Wahlen im Osten entgegengefiebert: Sie galten als letztes mögliches Hindernis für Merz’ Weg zur Kanzlerkandidatur. Noch am Montag hatte Merz versichert, eine „Zerreißprobe“ werde der Union allenfalls „von den Medien angedichtet“.
The next day it became clear: it is not that simple. Even if the CDU is not about to burst, there is unmistakable unrest in the belly of the party. Those around North Rhine-Westphalia’s Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst are aware of the Berlin party leader’s uncertainties, such as his untrue statement that the word firewall has “never been part of our language”. Depending on how the government formation in Erfurt and Dresden goes, “turmoil” is to be expected, predicts people in Düsseldorf. “There will be a debate.”
AfD and BSW as children of the same parents
With its incompatibility resolutions against the AfD and the Left Party – made under Angela Merkel – the CDU has become entangled in contradictions that are difficult to resolve. In 2018 (and even when the resolutions were confirmed in 2020), it was not foreseeable that the AfD would become the strongest party in some federal states, nor that the Left Party politician Wagenknecht would successfully split off and form her own party.
Now there are questions that can no longer be answered without contortions: Why does the CDU ostracize the Left, but sound out the left-populist BSW, which also speaks out against CDU core values such as Western ties? And why is the CDU closer in terms of content to a former Stalinist than to the right-wing nationalist AfD? For Kiesewetter, both should be isolated equally: “The AfD is no better or worse than the BSW. Both are children of the same Russian mother.”
The discontent and confusion are particularly great at the epicenter of the events. Saxony has “politically walled itself in,” says Ralf Hänsel, the district administrator of Meissen: the AfD on the right, the BSW on the left and right, and the CDU squeezed in between. Squeezed in, or, as an influential Christian Democrat from East Saxony believes, already “with one foot over the abyss.”
Please no “unsolicited help from outside”
There are two realities in people’s minds, depending on who you talk to. In Dresden, optimism is spreading. Now they’re going to celebrate a little, said Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer on election night, obviously relieved by the result. On Monday, the state executive committee met and gave the order to talk to everyone except the AfD and the Left. The party leadership tried to convey unity, they say, the tenor: Even if it hurts, we can’t get past the BSW. It is sensible to have “non-binding talks”, says Dresden MP Markus Reichel, who is incidentally quite annoyed by Kiesewetter’s comments. “We can assess the situation here in Saxony very well on the ground, we don’t need unsolicited help from outside.”
The other reality has been apparent since Monday, in the meetings of the CDU district executive committees. Many people indignantly rejected a coalition with the BSW. “Some have said clearly: If you do that, we’re gone,” says one CDU man. If the party executive hopes that the base will swallow a coalition with Wagenknecht, they are mistaken. Other CDU people also know members who are threatening to leave if they work with the “old communists.” Some even speak of a “revolt.”
No one in the Saxon CDU denies that the dilemma is great: a coalition with the AfD, which presents itself as more bourgeois in Saxony than in Thuringia but is no less right-wing extremist, is effectively out of the question. Even if some speak of “a few individual votes” and others of “a significant number of officials” who would have no problem with a coalition, the “firewall” is in place.
Blackberry coalition or minority government?
But the BSW is hardly more sympathetic to many CDU people, not even as an emergency solution against the AfD. The “bourgeois” appearance of the BSW should not be trusted, says the former CDU state parliament vice president Andrea Dombois: she knows this kind of behavior from the GDR. Others who still have Wagenknecht’s communist tirades in their ears also believe that the BSW is just the next skin change of the SED. Like the Meißen district administrator Hänsel, they are calling for the incompatibility resolution to be extended to Wagenknecht’s troops.
Hänsel is against a coalition with the AfD, but he thinks that the CDU has more in common with them in terms of content than with the SPD and BSW. An alliance with the two left-wing parties would be “again just a compromise solution”. Instead of a “blackberry” coalition, Hänsel would prefer a minority government – even at the price of the CDU being tolerated by the BSW and AfD. He thinks that would be a good way to test the reliability of the BSW. Elsewhere, too, the base sympathizes with a tolerance that Kretschmer has so far rejected. That will not happen with him, he said on Thursday. Some in the Saxon CDU answer behind closed doors: Then maybe at some point without him.
Of course, a minority government is not without risks. The district administrator of the Saxon Switzerland/Eastern Ore Mountains district, Michael Geisler, admits this. The AfD could make Kretschmer wait in the election of the prime minister, and then he would enter the government already weakened. Nevertheless, Geisler believes that toleration would be the best thing, also because the AfD would be held “responsible”. In the municipalities, “sensible proposals” from the party would also be “honestly discussed” because otherwise they would not be able to act. Geisler says that there is a “huge right-wing conservative majority” in Saxony. “It would be a slap in the face of the voters if we formed a center-left government again anyway. Then the AfD would win an absolute majority in five years.”
Even at the CDU base in Thuringia, this is unimaginable for many: sitting down at the same table with former and not so former communists from the BSW. But if Thuringia is to become governable, they say, they have to talk to them. Some want to see the good side: “The BSW is closer to us on issues of migration policy or education policy than the Left Party,” says the district chairman and district administrator from the Wartburg district, Michael Brodführer.
Some also want to talk to AfD people, across the firewall. In a video conference with the district chairmen, the state executive board reiterated its position that it would not form a coalition with the AfD under any circumstances. There should not even be loose discussions. In everyday parliamentary life, however, it will be necessary to talk to the AfD, said participants in the FAS conference. Two district chairmen pointed out that, out of respect for the voters, an invitation from the AfD to talk should not be categorically ruled out.
District chairman Brodführer is one of those who see things differently: “If you don’t want to form a government with the AfD, there’s no need for exploratory or introductory talks.” He expects that a majority of CDU district chairmen will support the line taken by chairman Mario Voigt. At the grassroots level, however, there is a constant concern that the AfD will only become stronger if it is ignored. After all, almost 33 percent voted for the AfD. State parliament member Martina Schweinsburg sees it this way: “Entering into talks doesn’t mean that you want to form a coalition.” Among the CDU state parliament members, the former district administrator from Greiz is the only one to say this publicly. Several CDU district chairmen are just as open to introductory talks with the AfD. But they have one condition: they will not sit down at the same table with Björn Höcke.
“Last bastion of the political centre”
But you have to talk to someone. That’s why the Berlin power center is working on arguments so that at least Wagenknecht can do that. Although the BSW has an election manifesto and its namesake has long been known, the new party is referred to as a “black box” or, as Merz joked, a “red box”. “We know too little about the BSW,” says Merz’s confidant Thorsten Frei. This is intended to explain why the party is treated differently than the AfD and the Left. Another argument is almost moral in nature: As the “last bastion of the political center,” the Union has a special responsibility, says Frei. In this “incredibly difficult situation,” the CDU deserves support rather than criticism. Taking options off the table now, i.e. declaring the BSW untouchable, would be foolish.
CDU politicians are not particularly interested in stabbing Merz in the back so shortly before the question of who will be the chancellor and one year before the federal election. Kiesewetter also does not want his initiative to be seen as a rebellion. Only “concerned voices” have been raised, he says, stressing that he “clearly sees Merz as a candidate for chancellor.” But even opponents of the CDU chairman within the party express understanding. Many do not want to weaken Merz in the face of Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, who is still waiting for his chance.
Even if Merz survives the formation of a government in the East unscathed, the firewall is likely to follow him. Brandenburg will vote on September 22nd, and the whole nation in a year. In the intellectual hinterland of the party, some are worried that the CDU is now “paying the price for abandoning its strategy.” Making deals with far-left parties damages credibility and strengthens the AfD, say conservatives. It would be wiser if Merz did not rule out cooperation across the board, but rather defined substantive boundaries. But the time is probably not yet ripe for this strategic flexibility.
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