This year, the economy will shrink by another 0.6 percent, estimates Pellervo's economic research.
Pellervon Economic research predicts that the economy will grow by 1.2 percent next year. Although the falling interest rate and the reduction in inflation will stimulate the economy towards the end of the current year, PTT estimates that the economy will contract by 0.6 percent this year.
The economy is still burdened by the low level of construction and weak export development.
“Finland is persevering back towards growth with the help of increasing household incomes and growing consumption,” says the research director Olli-Pekka Ruuskanen in the bulletin.
According to the research institute, the risk factor in the forecast is the inflamed labor market situation. If the political labor struggles are prolonged and expanded, they will accordingly start to weigh down the entire economy.
Employment will weaken this year, but unemployment is mainly concentrated in construction and industry, PTT predicts.
This year, the number of employed people will decrease by almost 20,000 and the unemployment rate will rise to 8 percent. Next year, the number of employed people will increase by about 8,000 and the unemployment rate will fall to 7.8 percent, when the problems in the construction industry begin to ease and the economy generally recovers from the recession.
The growth of the public finance deficit will continue this year and is 3.6 percent of the gross domestic product. Despite accelerating economic growth and future adjustment measures, the deficit will remain at a high level next year as well.
“The deficit will remain large due to, among other things, difficulties in the welfare regions and increasing defense investments,” PTT estimates in its forecast of the national economy.
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