The result of Sunday’s plebiscite will mark a turning point in Chilean society and politics. It is, without a doubt, the most influential electoral act since the 1988 plebiscite, which put an end to the military dictatorship. In an electoral register of more than 15 million voters, turnout is expected to be very high, due to the obligation to vote on this occasion, but above all due to the great interest and depth of what is at stake. In the last presidential election, more than 8.3 million voted, and according to information provided by the Electoral Service, five days before the election, more than 14 million people had consulted their polling place, an unprecedented figure.
And if the percentage of participation is very important, its result and the effects it brings are even more so. What scenarios are glimpsed in each case?
Opinion polls —even before the two-week information ban began— gave the rejection alternative as the winner by margins of more than 10 points. However, the latest measurements —which circulate through social networks and private messages— show that this gap has narrowed, but still favors rejection.
The first question that jumps out is: why a process that began with 78% approval of the idea of a new Constitution, today does not exceed 50%? Obviously there are multiple factors, but there is a transversal consensus that the radicalization of conventionalists, the cancellation towards sectors of the center and right, the refoundational and maximalist desire, made the moderate voter, who does not identify with political parties, feel deeply disillusioned and disappointed by how the process and its result unfolded.
So much so, that the Government itself urged its coalition to reach an agreement on modifications to the constitutional text that had to be made before it came into force, such as ensuring a mixed provision in health and education, establishing the heritability of pension funds, restrict the scope of indigenous consultation and consent, that the new Council of Justice be made up mostly of judges, the elimination of immediate re-election, the restitution of the State of Emergency in the face of serious disturbances of public order, which today the government has used it several times in Araucanía, among other things.
What happens if you win the Rejection?
One of the characteristics of this option is its political transversality. It includes all the right-wing parties, but also important sectors of the center-left. In fact, almost half of the former ministers who had the center-left governments since the return to democracy, vote rejection. Of the former presidents, the only one who has spoken out for approval is Michelle Bachelet.
This “accidental coalition” has compromised, for the most part, the need to continue with the constitutional process, to make a “new and good constitution” as part of its campaign phrases say, and has insisted on the need to generate a broad political agreement —such as the one that took place on November 15, 2019 (15N), a month after the “social outbreak” began— and trace the new path. It is to start over, but not from scratch, and in a shorter period of time.
The Government, for its part, must recognize its electoral and cultural defeat. In the first, since it was the president himself who had to lead part of the Approval campaign, and it was one of his main ministers who argued that the result of the plebiscite was closely linked to the implementation of his government program. Culturally, self-criticism should be deeper. Since the spirit that interpreted the 2019 crisis as closer to a revolution that should refound everything and seek recognition of the various radicalized identities will have been defeated, than to the demonstration of great discomfort resulting from the unfulfilled promises of modernization. capitalist and inequalities.
At the same time, he will have to contain the most leftist groups in his coalition, such as the Communist Party and part of the Broad Front, which refused to sign and approve the 15N agreement and will probably want to interpret the radical discontent.
Finally, it will have the opportunity to be part of a new great agreement for that “start over”, turning more towards democratic socialism and the experience of the old Coalition, also agreeing with the majority of the right.
In short, it would be a great defeat, but not the end. President Boric has already shown on other occasions the ability to push agreements, even at high cost in his own sector.
And if he wins the Approval?
Undoubtedly, President Boric and his coalition of the Broad Front and the Communist Party would be greatly strengthened. This would give him the necessary leadership to contain the impetuous desire to apply the new norms without modifying them, and fulfill the commitment of the Approve parties, reaching agreements with the right and center in Congress.
The proposal for a new Constitution incorporates a long itinerary of reforms, transitions and modifications, which would mean that the Government should be devoted to work in Congress and its coalition. It will probably happen that the most radical right wing will harden their action and that something similar will happen with the left.
The victory of the election must be transformed into a success in the negotiations and in which the norms of the Constitution can be felt as their own by both halves of the country that will be divided after the plebiscite.
Liberal democracy is going through crises all over the world, the politics of identities, the loss of referents and their consequent anomie, as well as the withdrawal of all-encompassing ideologies of the good —replaced by a true mosaic of causes or a “model for arming” individual – make uncertainty the keynote.
But with more and better democracy, win approval or rejection, you can always start over.
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