Nuclear power plants, video game card manufacturers, social network owners… What do all these sectors have to do with each other? They are the main beneficiaries of the investment tsunami that the stock market has been experiencing since ChatGPT was launched in November 2022, that is, since Generative artificial intelligence will grab all the headlines and the entire planet would prophesy two things: either, the end of humanity as if a new Skynet were going to drop all the atomic bombs; or, the greatest economic progress in recent decades.
Two years have passed since ChatGPT gained “consciousness” and there are growing doubts about whether AI will revolutionize as fast as the market is betting. The initial data present a diffuse picture. A Gallup poll cited by Bloomberg indicates that only 4% of American workers use artificial intelligence daily in their work, two-thirds never use it. In Spain, the situation is similar: the latest ICT survey carried out by the INE shows that only one in eight companies uses AI on a daily basis. An InfoJobs survey reveals similar data to the American one regarding employees: although a third of workers have used AI, only 6% It does so recurrently compared to the remaining two-thirds who apply it in their work.
In fact, not even ChatGPT is the hard core of AI: according to the InfoJobs survey, the main use of artificial intelligence is for perform automatic translations (58%) and then followed by natural language processors (such as OpenAI’s product, 37%) and voice assistants (27%). The use that is being given to AI, although useful, is seen more as an accessory tool than as an element that will displace workers, at least in the short term.
Investments in many zeros and ones
According to Bloomberg estimates, five of the Magnificent Seven, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta and Microsoft, made a joint investment in capital of 62 billion dollars (59 billion euros) in the third quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 50%; with great attention to AI. Tech investors are used to seeing big outlays on self-investments, but the question is whether they can lose patience early. Speaking in Roman paladino: is there a risk of there being a new crisis like dotcoms?
No one doubts the potential that AI has to generate profits, but How much will it be and how long will it take? These are two questions that more and more investors are asking themselves. The need for investments is proposing Herculean projects such as resurrecting nuclear power plants to supply energy in the United States, expanding data centers at a dizzying pace in regions as unimaginable a few years ago as Aragon or rethinking semiconductor production centers throughout the globe. in case China decides to invade Taiwan.
Why would anyone pay for AI?
In the era of social media, where everything is free in exchange for consumer information, artificial intelligence tools have been launched under models freemium for two reasons: first, because generative intelligences like ChatGPT or Dall-E need data input to debug their models; second, because it is a claim for people to use it.
Without a clear proposal from technology companies, it is difficult for workers to incorporate artificial intelligence into their work routines. As soon as Elon Musk launched an AI attached to X (formerly Twitter), economically profitable uses such as the creation of a montage with Adolf Hitler eating a hamburger with Ibai Llanos.
Arvind Narayanan, one of the leading experts in the use of AI and professor of computer science at Princeton, warned in a post in october that the use of AI is becoming fundamentally social and sporadic. Narayanan said in statements reported by Bloomberg that AI is probably “a lower order” in the use of other technologies and that It will take “one or two decades” to “fully” achieve the advantages of artificial intelligence.
Everyone invests in the periphery
Investors are unlikely to be so patient and this could be a problem that drags several sectors into recession, like when the stock bubble burst. dotcom. One of the main weaknesses of artificial intelligence is that There are no own companies as such that are listed: or, the development of generative AI is led by giants with multiple interests such as Google or Amazon; or, the markets are betting on everything that rhymes with AI, such as nuclear energy, semiconductors, graphics cards…
If there were a collapse of investments, there would clearly be two factions: the survivors and the condemned. For multifaceted giants like Microsoft or Apple, the blow would not be so strong, since they have eggs in many baskets and several crises in their portfolio. But the doubt arises with those companies whose main attraction is only AI.
Companies like Broadcom or Nvidia They are experiencing a golden age in their price, with investors willing to give them their checkbook, for their promise in the face of artificial intelligence. But this could be a mirage: the market favorite Magnificent started climbing in November 2022, when ChatGPT was launched, and currently has a capitalization of more than the 3 billion euros. The actions of amdits main competitor in the graphics card market—Nvidia’s historical revenue line—are worth 200,000 million euros15 times less. Considering that both make components necessary for computing, including AI, are Nvidia’s chips overheating?
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