Venezuelans know all moods. In two decades of Chavismo they have gone through illusion, disbelief, fear, anger, struggle and disappointment until settling into the most serious of all: hopelessness. The phrase that the majority of Venezuelans were more concerned about surviving the day-to-day life of the crisis than seeking political change has been prevalent in recent years. It has been repeated by analysts, political scientists, opposition leaders and the media, including this one. That is why no one saw the success of participation coming in the opposition primaries held last Sunday. Manually organized elections that even their promoters doubted, but to which two million Venezuelans inside and outside the country responded. It turns out that the citizens were not anesthetized and the biggest surprise came from Chavismo itself, which has responded by opening a judicial investigation against the organizers of the process.
In Venezuela nothing can happen for months and everything can happen in a week. We are right at that moment. To summarize, in recent days negotiations between Chavismo and the opposition have resumed, it was agreed to hold presidential elections in 2024 with international observation, the United States announced the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan gas and oil, Chavismo freed five prisoners politicians and the opposition held self-managed primaries with unexpected success. For a country that has lived in Groundhog Day for years, any of these events alone would be news, all together they represent an information bomb. But speaking of Venezuela, caution is necessary. Are there reasons to think about a transition?
Chavismo agreed with the opposition at the negotiating table in Barbados to allow the primaries to be held, but not to enable María Corina Machado, the politician who was known to overwhelmingly win that consultation. Nicolás Maduro put his situation as a red line, according to consulted sources. Under no circumstances does the Venezuelan president want to face her in presidential elections with guarantees, in which he would have everything to lose. The strategy of the opposition, united since Sunday around Machado, is to demand the rehabilitation of the political rights of all citizens, but the reality is that the majority recognizes that it is very difficult for Maduro to allow the winner to register. as a candidate.
Faced with this situation, one more outrage by the regime that controls the judicial body that issues disqualifications for the most absurd reasons, Machado could decide to step aside to elect another unity candidate or demand his right to run at all costs. “The latter would open a scenario of conflict that would radicalize the Government,” foresees Luis Vicente León, director of the Datanalisis firm. In the other scenario, the current weakness of the ruling party and the renewed strength of the opposition give rise to versions that assure that any candidate supported by the entire united opposition could defeat Chavismo.
León believes that there is no possibility that Maduro risks losing power in truly democratic elections (“zero probability”). If that happens, there is a possibility that the United States will recover the sanctions—the withdrawal of which depends on Chavismo taking steps toward opening—and the president of Venezuela will cast himself in his authoritarian position. “We would enter a higher level of autocracy. Maduro would be nicaraguaizing the country,” he continues. Other analysts, such as Geoff Ramsey, director for Venezuela at the Washington Office on Latin America (Wola), are confident that this situation will not come to pass. Washington is interested in trade with Caracas, Chavismo is interested in money moving in the country, and the opposition is interested in holding elections. In the middle of that triangle the future of Venezuela is at stake. “I see no interest in Washington in returning to the status quo before,” says Ramsey.
The opposition will have to decide in the coming weeks what to do if Chavismo refuses to rehabilitate Machado. The majority of democratic forces are in favor of finding a substitute and applying what is already known as the Barinas strategy. In that region of the country, the opposition won the elections against Chavismo in 2021, but the ruling party did not accept the results and the Supreme Court of Venezuela ordered their repetition. The winner was disqualified, as were the two successive candidates presented by the opposition, the ruse of Chavismo to not let Hugo Chávez’s birthplace be taken away from him. The fourth candidate was considered suitable and won again at the polls. He governs the region today. Under this logic, the opposition would have to designate a new candidate and, faced with possible disqualifications, present as many as necessary until one of them receives authorization to confront Maduro with the support of everyone.
That scenario is uncertain. It does not seem at all easy for the opposition – in which there are very different sensitivities – to maintain unity in the face of the immense challenge that lies ahead. Other political forces that have not participated in the primaries could also appear on their own and fracture the united vote, which would favor Maduro. Those who act independently are known as the scorpions, an opposition ad hoc for the Government that does not actually represent any threat to the ruling party. “Right now, any candidate could beat Maduro if the entire opposition is united. If it is divided, it will have very little chance,” says Geoff Ramsey.
A candidate from the hardest wing
María Corina Machado has fallen like a meteorite in the middle of the negotiation. Neither the United States nor the Unitary Platform of Venezuela – the union of opposition parties that negotiate in Barbados – nor Chavismo were counting on her overwhelming appearance a few months ago, which has led her to win the primaries with more than 90%. “None of the three actors are especially fans of her,” slips a source familiar with the process. The negotiators on both sides start from some basic lines of understanding—agreed upon in 2021 in Mexico before Chavismo froze the negotiations—that now with Machado are in question.
She never agreed to opening negotiation processes with the Government, considering it a way to legitimize the regime, although it is true that she has moderated her positions in recent months. The politician also did not support the opposition to participate in the elections for years and now plans to do so. That is why the decision I make in the coming weeks is unknown.
Despite the thousand edges of a conflict that risks becoming entrenched, everything indicates that something is moving in Venezuela. “It is a moment of hope,” summarizes Paola Alemán, national vice president of Primero Justicia programs and doctor in political science. He considers that “dictatorships are wrong”, that Maduro thought that “fear and terror” were enough to stop people, but he did not know the resilience of the opposition, which after many years of tension and mistakes was able to mobilize two million people on Sunday. Alemán recognizes that now the “undisputed leader” is Machado and that this vote must “translate into an electoral machinery that is capable of overcoming the obstacles that will arise.” First, to fight for his authorization and, on the horizon, to ensure that the opposition goes united until 2024 and “defeats Maduro.”
If that were to happen, would Chavismo abandon power of its own free will? “It is very unlikely,” adds Ramsey, “but that does not mean that the international community should stop offering incentives to key Chavismo actors to support a transition. “There are people within who are interested in a political future and would support a negotiated transition.” León gives as an example the replacement of the dictatorship to the parliamentary monarchy that took place in Spain, where an amnesty law was enacted. It is also difficult for him to believe that Maduro, who has a reward in the United States of 15 million dollars, would simply abandon power. The voices that ask that, just as Chile peacefully overcame the Pinochet dictatorship, Venezuela move towards the same are increasingly numerous. This is what is defended, for example, by opposition leader Henrique Capriles, a nemesis in Machado’s opposition bloc.
Due to the latest movements of Chavismo, a certain nervousness is perceived among its ranks. One of the most immediate problems that can arise for the opposition is the judicialization of the primaries. Tarek William Saab, the country’s attorney general, has announced a criminal investigation against the organizers and this Friday he has requested that three of them – Jesús María Casal, Mildred Camero and Roberto Abdul-Hadi Casanova – go to testify as those under investigation. Saab recalled in a message on social networks that the Constitution states that the organization of events like this must be carried out by the National Electoral Center (CNE). And although that is true, the truth is that the opposition spent months waiting for the CNE to respond to their request for support and, when it did, it was so late that they were forced to manage it on their own. The question now remains as to whether the accusations of the Chavista institutions will extend to the rest of those involved in the primaries, which would mean a breach of the agreement signed by Barbados, where Barbados was called to respect them.
“It is a turning point because the Government did not expect it, it signed the agreement and did not count on people going out to vote, thinking that people were fed up with politics. And it turns out that yes, Venezuelans voted en masse,” explains Margarita López Maya, Venezuelan historian. Luis Vicente León agrees with this, and calculates that at this point Maduro must be regretting having allowed his celebration. López Maya now sees a window of opportunity and considers that the moment favors the opposition: “Chavismo is in a position in which it has no choice but to negotiate. When the agreement was known [de Barbados] I thought it was a strike from the United States to Jorge Rodríguez (head of the Government’s negotiating team). “They signed without foreseeing what was going to happen and now they can get their shit together.” López Maya is also sure that, in fair elections, Chavismo knows it cannot win.
Venezuela has been stuck for five years in a negotiation that takes steps forward and then two steps back. The most pessimistic consider that these rapprochements between the parties are doomed to failure. The optimists, that the country is in a moment of change, who knows if definitive. There are still many battles to fight ahead, but the opposition has scored the first goal after years of erratic strategies. The best proof of this is the nerves of Chavismo.
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