Shell expects 50 percent more demand for liquid gas

DGlobal demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will grow by half by 2040. This is what the experts from the British energy company Shell estimated in their energy outlook published in London on Wednesday. The reason for the increase is the growing demand from the economies of South and Southeast Asia. Last year, global sales rose by 1.8 percent to a good 400 million tons. Demand of 625 to 685 million tons is expected in 2040, writes Shell. The company is the largest LNG trader in the world.

Prices fell in 2023, but prices and price fluctuations were still above the average for the years 2017 to 2020. The market remains tense. This is also a consequence of the sanctions against Russia and reduced Russian deliveries since the start of the Ukrainian war. Europe's LNG imports remained at a similar level in 2023 as in 2022. However, Europe's overall natural gas demand fell.

According to the Shell report, China has overtaken Japan as the largest importer of liquefied natural gas. This year, China's demand will probably rise to a record level of almost 80 million tons, after 70 million tons in 2023. Although LNG demand has reached its peak in some regions of the world, the continued increase in demand from the People's Republic will determine global market activity. “China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry shifts from coal to gas as it seeks to reduce carbon dioxide emissions,” said Steve Hill, vice president of Shell Energy.

China's steel industry, whose blast furnaces currently use coal, is in favor of more CO₂emissions more responsible than CO₂-Total emissions from Germany, Britain and Turkey combined, Hill said. If this sector reduced its emissions through the use of gas, it could become one of the world's largest sources of CO₂-Eliminate emissions and also combat local air pollution. However, the liquefied gas transported by large ships and tankers has a significantly higher CO2 content₂-Footprint as natural gas transported through pipelines. It is also significantly more expensive.

Shell estimates that global LNG demand will peak in the years after 2040 and then decline. The International Energy Agency has called on the world's major energy companies to move more quickly away from oil and gas production and invest more in renewable energies for climate protection reasons. So far these investments have been far too small. Shell is Europe's largest oil and gas company, but smaller than the US oil multinationals ExxonMobil and Chevron.