Ukraine has been asking allies in the European Union and the United States to send fighter jets to defend territory from the Russian army. But sending these weapons comes up against some issues with these nations, such as Russia’s military response and also the protection of these war technologies and possible replication by enemy nations.
US President Joe Biden announced last Monday (30) that he will not send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The Americans are one of the main war suppliers for the Ukrainians in the conflict, having sent 41 Abrams tanks and M88 armored vehicles that should arrive in the European country in the coming months.
Members of the European Union with France and the Netherlands have not yet ruled out sending fighter jets to Ukraine, but admit that they will place specific conditions for these shipments. French President Emmanuel Macron stressed on Monday that the act could not trigger an increase in conflict, as well as diminish the capabilities of the national army.
The position was followed by the President of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, who considered the shipment as “a very big step” within the conflict. Both countries also want Ukraine to commit itself, in case of receiving the fighter jets, to using this weapon only to defend Ukrainian territory and not to attack Russian soil.
For the political scientist and director of Projects at the Center for Strategy, Intelligence and International Relations (CEIRI), Marcelo Suano, the possible arrival of fighter jets in Ukraine would have the potential to decide the confrontation in favor of the Ukrainians.
“Because they are strategic weapons, not just practical weapons. A practical weapon operates on a specific battlefield where it has a range of 500 km, but the Americans delivered it to Ukraine with a range of 90 km, that is, it does not reach the territory of Russia. Ukraine has fighter jets, but they are all inherited from the Soviet Union and are therefore out of date and do not change the general scenario”, explains Suano.
This vision is shared by the Brazilian Army Reserve Colonel and Master in Military Sciences, Paulo Roberto da Silva Gomes Filho. “At the tactical level, they could try to obtain the so-called local air superiority, which consists of guaranteeing that during a certain period of time, in a certain perimeter of the battlefield, only Ukrainian aircraft would fly. The aircraft could also carry out operations against deeper targets, such as logistic bases and command posts.
Russia’s military response could escalate war to other nations
With the maintenance of support from the United States and European Union nations to Ukraine, Russia has publicly reinforced that it can respond to these actions with more ostensive incursions, such as the use of tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil.
Russia has tried to preempt the deployment of tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine by attacking the country’s supply and transmission lines. With the harsh Eastern European winter only ending in March, the Russian army has made it difficult for Ukrainians to survive this period.
Another complex factor for Ukraine is the dwindling presence of human resources in the country. More than 7 million people have migrated from the country to other nations and with around 100 thousand Ukrainian soldiers dead since the beginning of the War, even with the arrival of the allied arsenals, the time for training the population to operate tanks and fighters can not be enough for the country to support Russian onslaughts.
“Russia has more human resources and a lot of weapons, but they are already being replenished more slowly, especially due to the worsening economy. That is why it is having to buy drones in Iran and support from North Korea, in addition to not having direct weapons from China. There are doubts that they will be able to bomb and promptly end the war in Ukraine or respond to cutting-edge fighters”, continues Suano.
Within this scenario, a final alternative to the Russian army is the use of nuclear weapons. But that resource would impact responses from other nations with nuclear arsenals, triggering a global conflict, even if Russia manages to carry out the first strikes.
“The problem is to bear the consequences of this armament, which will reach neighboring territories and will make all countries with this technology stay in a state of alert and just one act away from a hecatomb. As much as the Russian arsenal is vast and the country could attack first, the action would be answered with shots from different nations, transforming it into a Battle of Pyrrhus”, concludes Suano.
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