The projection for the Selic rate at the end of 2022 continued for the 8th consecutive week at 13.75% in the Focus Bulletin, its current level, after the minutes of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reinforced the preference for the end of the high interest. A month ago, the percentage was already 13.75%. Likewise, the median for the Selic at the end of 2023 remained at 11.00%, from 10.75% four weeks earlier.
Considering only the 69 responses in the last five working days, the expectation for the basic interest rate at the end of this year also remained at 13.75%. For the end of 2023, the 68 revisions made in the last five business days did not change the median of 11.00%.
In this month’s Copom, the Selic rose 0.50 percentage point, from 13.25% to 13.75%, and the collegiate said that it will assess the need for an additional hike of 0.25pp in September.
“The Committee will assess the need for a minor residual adjustment at its next meeting. The Copom emphasizes that it will remain vigilant and that the future steps of monetary policy may be adjusted to ensure the convergence of inflation to its targets”, said the collegiate.
In the minutes, the BC added that it assesses that the strategy required to bring inflation to “around the target” in the relevant horizon considers the increase defined at 13.75% in August and the maintenance of the rate in a very contractionary territory for a long period. .
According to the Focus Bulletin, the forecast for the Selic at the end of 2024 remained at 8.00%, the same percentage as a month ago. The median for the end of 2025 was maintained at 7.50%, repeating the rate of four weeks earlier.
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