Security policy The United States considers Russia’s invasion of Kiev likely, but “You can’t just walk to Kiev,” says director of the Department of Military Defense

Abroad|Security policy

The United States president Joe Biden said on Friday night at a press conference in Finland that the President of Russia Vladimir Putin has decided to attack Ukraine – and it can happen at any time.

Biden also said the most likely target of the attack: the Ukrainian capital Kiev.

Read more: Biden: Putin has made the decision to attack Ukraine, targeting probably the capital Kiev

What kind of target would the Ukrainian capital be if Russia attacked it?

Nothing easy, says the director of the Department of Military Skills at the National Defense College, Colonel Petteri Kajanmaa.

“Urban warfare is the most difficult form of warfare. The defender always has an advantage, ”he says.

Fighting environment According to Kajanmaa, urban warfare is “truly three-dimensional”: there is air, buildings and underground space.

“It breaks down the attacking force, making it impossible for anyone to concentrate, which is a prerequisite for warfare. ”

Kiev is also large, with a population of almost three million. The advantage of the city is also that it is crossed in places by the very wide river Dnieper, on the west side of which there are also differences in altitude of hundreds of meters.

Kajanmaan according to him, attacking Kiev would require Russia to have great confidence in its success, even though its military superiority is enormous.

For example, in the Iraq war in 2003, it took the United States weeks to conquer the capital, Baghdad, even though the U.S. and its allies were technically completely superior. The occupation was not successful until the defenders of the city stopped fighting.

“At the moment, Ukrainians are threatening to fight. You can’t just walk to Kiev, ”he says.

“You should only attack Kiev if you know the attack will be successful. That the Ukrainians will not go to fight in Kiev. ”

In practice, this would mean that Russia would know that it would be able to march into the Ukrainian territories and take control of the regime with only minor fighting.

“To achieve this, one would have to bomb, use a far-reaching weapon system or an air weapon, and put the Ukrainian armed forces in a state where it could not resist.”

Kajanmaan Russia has the capability to launch an operation. It has huge numbers of troops near the borders of Ukraine, according to estimates up to 190,000 soldiersand has tremendous air superiority.

However, if the operation failed, a long and consuming guerrilla-style warfare would ensue, which would not be advantageous for Russia either.

“I consider the urban war in Kiev to be very unlikely.”

If Russia would try to take over Kiev, according to Kajanmaa, the background could be an attempt to change the Ukrainian government. However, Russia could pursue this primarily through other means, such as assassinations and covert operations, which it could later deny having done.

There is no hurry for Russia, as long as Ukraine does not slide any closer to the West.

If the attack on the city began, Kajanmaa estimates that it would take place on both sides of the Dnieper from Belarus and Russia. Russia has 30,000 troops on the Belarusian side in joint military exercises between the two countries, scheduled to end on Sunday.

“It would be possible to have such a blockade attack.”

American Russia expert at the CNA Research Center Michael Kofmanin an attack from northern Belarus on Kiev would be most likely if a change of power in Ukraine British Broadcasting Corporation BBC. In addition, by attacking from the direction of Belarus, troops could avoid movement in the Chernobyl protection zone.

There are possible routes of attack by the Center for International Strategic Studies January report according to three: north, east and south. Investigator Ben Barryn according to the attack from the direction of the Crimea is almost guaranteed if some kind of attack begins, says the BBC. Then some of the Ukrainian troops could be trapped east of the Dnieper River.

Although it is difficult to assess Russia’s actions, Kajanmaa estimates that the signs are now more indicative of fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The situation in eastern Ukraine is contributing to Ukraine’s instability, and Russia could hope that in the long run it will lead to Ukrainian dissatisfaction with its regime and thus to a more pro-Russian transformation.

In any case, according to Kajanmaa, Russia is likely to continue to apply pressure similar to the current situation.

“Russia can sometimes withdraw its troops and ease them, then do the same again.”