13-F Elections Castilla y León
The PSOE hopes to turn the polls around and believes that the PP “has taken a long time” to campaign
The decision of the president of Castilla y León, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, to bring forward the elections in his community to this Sunday shook the national political board and precipitated the second great pulse between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Casado in this legislature after the elections in Madrid, in May of last year. On that occasion, the PP garnered an unappealable majority at the hands of Isabel Díaz Ayuso and trusted during the pre-campaign to repeat it on 13-F, once again leaving Vox in a weak position and its leader, Casado, one step closer to Moncloa . But the reality is that the candidates arrived this Friday at the last day of the campaign with numerous unknowns derived, to a large extent, from the 23% undecided (according to the latest CIS barometer) and confirming that these regional elections, which for the first time are not being held together with some municipal ones, they have been played clearly from Madrid.
The head of the PSOE list, Luis Tudanca, did not expect to repeat his 2019 victory. Then he had to resign from the regional presidency when he could not add to his investiture. However, his campaign has gone ‘in crescendo’ spurred by the polls, which have ended up not predicting such a clear victory for Mañueco. This Friday the lost confidence returned to the final act of the campaign with a Sánchez who at first had maintained a discreet profile, but who has been getting closer to his candidate as the electoral appointment approached and the contest equalized. On Thursday he joined a rally in Burgos when it was not planned and this Friday he pressed again in the final act of the Socialists.
In Ferraz, the idea has been installed that his electorate is more mobilized than that of the popular ones, whom they consider burdened by Vox either by the need to agree with those of Santiago Abascal, or by the growth of the green formation. “The Popular Party these fifteen days have been very long, I would say eternal,” reiterated Tudanca. The argument also changed since Thursday and the socialist candidate has not stopped offering since then United We Can, Citizens and the candidates of the Emptied Spain a post-election government alliance if the accounts come out.
Turnout will be a key player on Sunday. The president of GAD3, Narciso Michavila, predicted on Wednesday that if it falls from 33% at 2:00 p.m. (without the drag of the municipal elections) the outlook for the PSOE will be less gloomy. An “excited” Tudanca picked up the gauntlet and asked his electorate for “one last effort at mobilization.” The PP placed its total bar at 65% at the beginning of the campaign.
The popular ones have maintained the tone of the contest until the end as a plebiscite against Sánchez. A strategy that worked perfectly for Ayuso in Madrid, although then in a context marked by pandemic restrictions. Mañueco stressed this Friday that “you cannot allow the vote of the center and the right to be fragmented” in order to allow a government “of PSOE, Podemos and those small local parties that are going to be asking all day.”
However, the popular candidate avoids confirming whether or not he will agree with Vox if the polls crystallize this Sunday. These predict that Mañueco will obtain 35 prosecutors, a figure that although the conservatives believe will allow them to overcome the entire left, it is far from the absolute majority (41) and increases the risk for them of depending on those of Abascal (12 seats according to GAD3 for ‘El Norte de Castilla’).
If it occurs, it would be the first regional government in which those of Abascal enter, who support the popular Moreno in Andalusia from outside – with ups and downs – and Ayuso in Madrid, although without any advice. His candidate, Juan García-Gallardo, has been supported by Absacal in up to nine campaign events. Both warn the PP that if he wants to agree “it will not be free.”
The young lawyer from Burgos was unknown in a territory where Vox has hardly any institutional representation (only 64 councilors out of a total of almost 13,000). The extreme right performs better in the general elections than in the regional ones: in the 2019 regional elections it obtained 5.4% of the vote and in the Spanish legislative elections, five months later, 16.8%. The objective in these elections, in which they have advocated the dissolution of the autonomies, is to show the PP that it is not the hegemonic force of the right.
the key to government
In Ciudadanos they took little time to go from astonishment to anger when they found themselves outside the Castilian-Leon Government from one day to the next. The candidate of the orange formation, Francisco Igea, until then vice president of the Board, is now betting on a great coalition that leaves out “the extremes.” This Friday he acknowledged that he sees “likely” that Mañueco will cease to be president on Monday.
United We Can has also rowed against the tide during the electoral campaign. The purples have not counted on the debut of the new project of the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, who has only participated in one rally during the campaign. They try to become the key that allows the PSOE to govern, although they did not avoid shooting friendly fire this Friday. “When our votes are essential, the agreements are fulfilled,” snapped the Minister of Social Rights, Ione Belarra, in relation to the discrepancies over the labor reform.
The Emptied Spain matches, which take place in Burgos, Palencia, Valladolid and Salamanca; and in Soria with the Soria ¡Ya¡ brand; they have become actors to be taken into account in future pacts.