Man can understand the constant change in the party system in Germany as a hallmark of a functioning democracy: societies change and with them their political values and goals. If existing parties fail to take up new developments, new ones will emerge. Some, such as the Pirate Party, can only achieve short-term success, others such as the AfD establish themselves in the longer term. You can understand the changing spirit of the times in the changing spectrum of parties.
There has been a lot of movement in the party system recently. Three new formations are trying to win the favor of voters: the Democratic Alliance for Diversity and Awakening (DAVA), which is aimed at Islamic immigrants, the conservative Union of Values, led by the former President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Hans-Georg Maaßen, and the Union of Values, which split off from the Die Linke party Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). The latter has particularly attracted a lot of attention. Does this party have a chance of establishing itself permanently? What characterizes this party in terms of content, what characterizes its supporters?
The first two questions cannot yet be answered today. The party program is still being worked on, and the current popularity of the party does not say much about its long-term prospects. The popularity is currently considerable: The latest population survey by the Allensbach Institute for Demoscopy on behalf of the FAZ shows that seven percent would vote for the BSW if there were a federal election next Sunday. To the question “Could you basically imagine voting for a new party founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, or could you not imagine that?” 24 percent answered yes. In East Germany it was even 40 percent.
It remains to be seen whether these numbers can actually be translated into corresponding election results for the BSW. The history of the Pirate Party around a decade ago shows how quickly even high approval ratings can evaporate. At the moment, the strong response to the BSW will have to be interpreted more as an echo of the intensive media coverage of the past few weeks than as an expression of a gap in the party system that many perceive as painful. At least this is what the analyzes of the current survey indicate, which were entirely devoted to the third question mentioned above: What characterizes the potential voters of Sahra Wagenknecht's party?
First of all, it is striking how little those who could imagine voting for the BSW differ from the average population. Men and women perceive the party to be equally electable, no age or education group stands out, respondents with low incomes find the party somewhat more attractive than high earners, but the difference is not very large.
When asked which party you voted for in the 2021 federal election, it becomes clear that the BSW's potential voters are recruited from all political camps. Only 14 percent said they voted for the left in 2021. Former AfD voters are similarly represented. They make up 15 percent of those who could imagine voting for Sahra Wagenknecht's party. Those surveyed said even more often that they had voted for the CDU/CSU or the SPD last time (25 and 19 percent, respectively). Green voters are also represented at 13 percent.
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