Russian attack | Putin took a position on the possibility of a ceasefire

Russian president Vladimir Putin is ready for a ceasefire on the current front lines, says the Reuters news agency based on its anonymous sources.

The information comes from four high-level Russian sources who work or have worked with Putin in politics or business. According to the sources, Putin would not be ready to negotiate on the occupied territories, but would be ready to freeze the conflict on its current front lines.

“Putin can fight as long as necessary, but he is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war,” said a source who, according to Reuters, has worked with Putin and has knowledge of high-level discussions in the Kremlin.

Reuters reached Putin later on Friday from Belarus, where he was meeting the country’s president Alexander Lukashenko. When Reuters asked Putin about the possibility of a ceasefire, he stated that the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine should be restarted.

“They should continue, but in accordance with the realities of the front. Negotiations cannot be conducted based on what the other party wants,” he stated.

At the same time, Putin also commented on the President of Ukraine to Volodymyr Zelensky position in peace negotiations. According to Putin, Zelensky would not have the “right” to sit on the other side of the table in the negotiations, as his presidential term in Ukraine has ended.

“It is justified to ask with whom the negotiations should take place. Of course we understand that the current head of state’s term is over and he no longer has legitimacy.”

Zelensky’s term at the head of Ukraine would have ended on Monday, May 20. However, you can’t in Ukraine by law to hold new elections during martial law.

At issue is not the first time that Putin is reportedly willing to seek a way out of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.

Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö would draw attention to the fact that this time the ceasefire initiative was not heard directly from Putin’s mouth, but was told by people close to him. Käihkö also works as a visiting researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute of the University of Helsinki.

“One could assume that people close to Putin know how to interpret his thoughts and understand what he means.”

I’m crazy according to the idea that the prolongation of the war would engrave Putin’s mind is not impossible. It is difficult to continue the war without sacrificing a thought to its domestic political effects.

“Putin may be really worried about the long-term effects of the war on Russia. War veterans are constantly returning from the front, who are faced with a poorer and more miserable Russia than before.”

According to him, Putin must think about the consequences of veterans’ dissatisfaction for Russia.

Käihkö emphasizes that there is no reason to imagine Russia as an all-powerful country that would be completely shockproof in the face of all war stress.

“Sometimes it feels like this side of the war doesn’t come up properly in the public discussion,” says Käihkö.

“Putin’s willingness to a cease-fire suggests that he has begun to take care of the economic and social problems produced by the war.”

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War veterans are constantly returning from the front, who are faced with a poorer and more miserable Russia than before.

Reuters according to three sources familiar with the discussions held in Putin’s inner circle, talk about the frustration that Putin would have expressed to his small circle of advisers.

According to the sources, Putin would have been frustrated by how, in his opinion, the West is restraining the negotiations. According to the sources, he would also have been frustrated by Zelenskyi’s decision to refuse negotiations.

Sources with knowledge of the discussions at the top of the Kremlin said that Putin believes that Russia’s achievements so far will be enough to convince Russians that the war has been won. Reuters’ sources believe that Putin would like to leave the war behind.

Käihkö thinks the analysis sounds plausible.

“Russia has failed in its original goals of the war. Ukraine has not been subdued, and this has been clear since March 2022. Putin has to bring his goals closer if it starts to look like Russia will not succeed in taking over Kiev and occupying all of Ukraine. Then the victory has to be framed on the basis of already occupied territories.”

Reuters three of the sources said that Putin understood that progress on the front would require a new initiative. However, he would not like to declare that.

Putin’s support fell at the time of the previous campaign in September 2022. It also caused many Russians to leave the country.

In order to maintain his position, Putin has to think about where it is best to put an end to military actions, says Käihkö.

On the other hand, Putin’s previous initiatives for peace negotiations have been overshadowed by suspicions that he would actually seek to reduce arms aid to Ukraine.

“Basically, you can’t trust Russia,” says Käihkö.

“For this reason, it would be important for Ukraine to receive security guarantees from its supporters. Without them, Ukraine will have to agree on a ceasefire in a situation where it has to be prepared for Russia to continue its attack despite the ceasefire.”

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Putin has to bring his goals closer if it starts to look like Russia will not succeed in taking over Kiev.

Ukraine is inevitably in a difficult position if Russia ends up proposing a ceasefire.

“Ukraine is currently in such a state of decline that it is possible for Russia to advance deeper and deeper into the country and occupy more territories for itself. A ceasefire could stop this development,” says Käihkö.

On the other hand, the ceasefire initiative may be interpreted in Ukraine as a sign of weakness. According to Käihkö, the country may see the initiative as a call to continue fighting, especially if Ukraine believes that international support will balance the power relations over time.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba commented on the Reuters news on Friday in the X message service. He interpreted Putin as sending “false signals” aimed at disrupting the peace conference led by Zelensky, which Switzerland is to host in June.

“Putin currently has no intention of ending his war of aggression in Ukraine. Only the principled and united voice of the global majority can force him to choose peace over war,” Kuleba wrote.

However, if Ukraine were to accept Russia’s proposal for a ceasefire, it could finally open the gates to peace talks.

“If Putin is leaning toward peace with the cease-fire, the conditions for negotiations are there,” says Käihkö.

According to him, this still does not mean that they would lead to a favorable outcome for the parties.

“Ukraine would need security guarantees, but they can be a red line for Russia. If peace were to come about through various territorial cessions, it could be difficult for Ukrainian politicians to sell peace to the citizens.”

The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented to Reuters on Friday that Putin has repeatedly made it clear that Russia is ready for dialogue to achieve its goals. According to Peskov, Russia does not want “eternal war”.

Ukraine’s foreign and defense ministries did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

Zelenskyi has repeatedly refused to negotiate with Putin and has vowed that Ukraine will take back the territories it lost. They include the Crimean peninsula, which was already occupied by Russia in 2014.