Russian attack OSCE Special Representative for Ukraine on peace talks: Hope for progress, but reservations

Ukraine and Russia’s peace negotiators said after Tuesday that progress had been made and that Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin a meeting is possible if a draft peace agreement is reached.

At the same time, Ukraine published its most detailed offers of negotiations since the outbreak of large-scale war. Head of the Russian delegation Vladimir Medinski for his part, said that although a meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia is possible, there is still a long way to go. However, Tuesday’s talks were “constructive”, Medinski said.

Also a representative of the Ukrainian delegation Myhailo Podoljak said the Russian delegation was “constructive,” but at the same time called the negotiations difficult.

On the table there are already a lot of things and very big ones, says the EU Special Representative for Ukraine to the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Ambassador Mikko Kinnunen.

At the same time, according to Kinnunen, it is too early to assess how much or how little the positions of Ukraine and Russia have converged.

“I hope convergence has taken place, but unfortunately I would be a little wary.”

According to Kinnunen, the comments received from the parties in recent days were such that no significant breakthroughs could be expected from Tuesday’s negotiations.

Neither side has achieved what could be called victory through warfare, and, according to Kinnunen, this has been reflected in the negotiations: positions and goals are far apart and the readiness for war is still great.

According to Kinnunen, it was “somewhat more positive” that the face-to-face talks were now being held in Istanbul, on neutral ground. Previous face-to-face meetings of negotiating delegations were held in Belarus, which is not neutral on the war.

First there is a ceasefire on the table and a subsequent peace agreement, they are key, Kinnunen says.

“It’s great to move towards a ceasefire, but before that, it’s even more important to get the humanitarian corridors open. Civilians are suffering and are being held hostage to war in Mariupol, for example. ”

If a ceasefire were to be reached, there would be bilateral issues between Ukraine and Russia on the table, including negotiations on regional issues: what will be agreed with Crimea, what will be done with the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which Russia has unilaterally declared independent? Sooner or later, an agreement must be reached on them if and when permanent peace is desired, Kinnunen says.

Ukraine proposes that a 15-year consultation period be agreed for Crimea, during which the status of the peninsula would be resolved and Ukraine would not try to take over the region by force.

“The idea of ​​agreeing on the status of Crimea through a certain transitional period is an example of ways to resolve the many bilateral issues that should be resolved between Ukraine and Russia.”

Kinnunen recalls what was done with Hong Kong: in 1898, Britain and China agreed that Britain (exactly the so-called New Territories, or the northern part of Hong Kong) belonged to Britain for 99 years. In 1997, Hong Kong was ceded to China.

According to Ukraine, the status of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions could be negotiated between the presidents.

Ukraine The proposals announced by the Commission also require much broader diplomacy than bilateral negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to be implemented, Kinnunen says.

“Ukraine is ready to commit itself to military non-alignment on the condition that it receives adequate security guarantees from various states. This is an example of an issue that requires the involvement of the international community. There are many other issues in this whole. ”

Ukraine would like security guarantees similar to those offered by NATO Defense Article 5 on common defense. Ukraine’s proposal could provide security guarantees for the United States, Britain, Turkey, France and Germany, among others.

Then there is the potential for an even broader whole, namely the various issues of European security. According to Kinnunen, this could include, for example, negotiations on broader arms control.

“There are many difficult entities to see here.”

What kind The role of the OSCE in Ukraine could be in the future if a ceasefire is reached first and then a peace agreement is reached?

“A lot depends on how this war ends,” Kinnunen says. The outcome of the war will largely determine what arrangements can be made to support a ceasefire and peace and what the international community can do.

If a large-scale UN peacekeeping operation were to be agreed in certain areas of Ukraine, it would “certainly require civilian crisis management expertise, and the OSCE has eight years of experience in Ukraine.”

Kinnunen emphasizes how important it is to think about the conditions for a ceasefire and peace.

“This war is shockingly large, the biggest war in Europe since World War II. A good, just ceasefire and peace should be made so that agreements are not made that serve merely as reasons or excuses for a new war. This is a challenge for all of us. ”

As for the Minsk agreements, which can be said to be three, this was not successful.

“Their first paragraph all mentions a permanent ceasefire. It can be said that it did not succeed for the whole eight years. ”