Former minister will be opponent of the current president of the Senate, who will run for re-election and needs to avoid wear and tear
The likely candidacy of Rogerio Marinho (PL) to the presidency of the Senate hinders the action of 2 fundamental characters for the approval of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) that allows the president-elect, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), break the spending ceiling to fulfill campaign promises in 2023. They are:
- Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) – the current President of the House will run for re-election in February. If you force your hand to approve the proposal, it can wear out and lose supporters;
- Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil) – the president of the CCJ is the probable rapporteur for the PEC. He also articulates Pacheco’s re-election. He wants to tie project details to the division of power in the House.
Marinho, elected senator in October, should be a strong candidate because of the good performance of Bolsonaristas in the Senate election. The largest bench in the House in 2023 will be the PL, with 14 members.
Today, the most likely scenario is a victory for Pacheco. In addition to being the current President of the House, which in itself influences the dispute, he will have the support of the new Lula government.
Even if Marinho does not become a viable candidate, however, he will have some influence on the outcome. At the very least, Pacheco will be re-elected with fewer votes than he would like and showing less strength than he could.
PEC content
The proposal stipulates that the Auxílio Brasil, which will once again be called Bolsa Família, be paid outside the public spending ceiling. It also allows for out-of-cap investments when tax collections are high.
The value could reach, in total, R$ 198 billion per year not computed in the expense control device. The figure, however, must be reduced during the processing.
The initial project of Lula’s political group determines that the license is valid for 4 years. This too must be changed.
Alcolumbre defends validity of 1 year for the proposal. It has shown to other senators that it accepts extending it to 2 years. But it would depend on the succession arrangements in the Senate.
Lula’s political group wants the Senate’s CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission) to vote on the PEC on Wednesday (7.10) in the morning and for the plenary to analyze it in the afternoon.
It’s a difficult schedule to stick to. As of this Monday, the last informal vote count begins. That’s when the lulistas will know if the proposal is viable or if it will be necessary to make more changes to get support from senators.
The schedule is tight. Senate and House approval is required this year. The Legislature only works until December 22. Then the recess begins.
In addition, the lulistas need the deputies to approve the text that the senators send to the Chamber without alterations. If there is a change, the proposal goes back to the Senate for a new analysis and will take more time.
PECs are the most difficult type of proposal for approval. They demand 3/5 of the votes in 2 rounds of voting in each House.
Lula’s political group will also need to mobilize senators to vote. Sessions at the end of election years tend to be more empty. Senators will likely be allowed to vote by cell phone. This favors the lulistas.
On Sunday, Pacheco and Alcolumbre met with the Budget rapporteur, senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI). Castro is the 1st signatory of the PEC.
The presence of the President of the Chamber was expected, Arthur Lira (PP-AL). He, however, was unable to attend. A new meeting was scheduled for 9 am this Monday.
Lula in Brasilia
The president-elect spent the weekend in São Paulo. He returned to the federal capital on Sunday night. He should work to unlock the processing of the PEC.
Lula designated allies to articulate the approval of the proposal at an early stage. It was a way of not exposing himself and preserving his political capital. Congress, however, wanted to negotiate directly with the president-elect.
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