Ten days from elections start to accumulate risks about him electoral process that we had not lived since democratic transition that began in the 1994 elections, while it seems that we are witnessing an increasingly dangerous regression.
We are very attentive to the debatesthe confrontationsthe presidential incursions into the electoral issue and the violence that darkens the entire panorama. In the last 15 days on 14 occasions the President López Obrador illegally ventured into the electoral issue; follow the murders, threats and attacks on candidates and campaign teamsin almost all cases with the most absolute impunity. But added to all that, like never before in the last elections, a key problem has arisen: the INE does not seem to have on this occasion the electoral functioning structure necessary to fulfill all its commitments. June 2nd.
It is deeply disconcerting that less than two weeks before the elections 1,400 electoral trainers resigned or were fired, whose work is central in each of the boxes. Yesterday he INE approved a mechanism to try to cover more than 800 vacancies of supervisors and electoral trainersdue to resignations and staff turnover, due to the lack of competitive salaries and even insecurity in some areas of the country.
It is impossible that this training can be replaced in such a short period of time, even by resorting, as stated, to base personnel of the INE itself, who I imagine will have other responsibilities to fulfill in the week before the elections. The trainers are in charge of defining the location and integration of boxes; the preparation and distribution of documentation on the tables; establish collection mechanisms; manage the information system, the quick count field operation and the PREP in local instances. It is said that it is not a general issue, but the truth is that it is not clear what its true significance will be when it comes to voting.
Because, in addition, there are areas of the country where it will be difficult to install polling stations or guarantee their proper functioning due to the presence of organized crime or social groups that will prevent it, which can also make it difficult for officials or polling station representatives to arrive. Or areas where the criminals themselves control the boxes. It is deeply striking that the INE, which has so much experience in this type of issues, has not acted with much anticipation in the face of these challenges and that just days before the elections it finds itself without sufficient trainers supposedly due to lack of budget.
The greatest risks are found in Chiapas, practically throughout the state; in at least four districts of Michoacán (which already had serious problems in the last elections); throughout Zacatecas; in the mountain and mountain areas of Guerrero, Morelos and the State of Mexico; in areas of Guanajuato and Jalisco; on the border strip of Tamaulipas and BC; in areas of Oaxaca.
A strong military and National Guard operation of 200 thousand elements has been arranged to guarantee security on election day, which may provide some peace of mind but that will not solve the structural problems that may arise in the process itself.
In how many districts could problems arise? Let us remember that it is said that a third of the national territory would be, in one way or another, under control or with a strong criminal presence. Can it reach up to 20 percent of the boxes? I don’t believe it, but if that percentage of boxes is annulled, the election can be annulled; If the difference between Xóchitl and Claudia is less than five percent, many elements that now seem impossible to raise (such as presidential meddling) could be key in a post-electoral dispute.
In the midst of all this and in the face of the inevitable atmosphere of suspicion that is generated, it is also disconcerting that President López Obrador and her own Claudia Sheinbaum insist both on the subject of technical coup d’état supposedly attempted by opposition. We must insist on one point: there is no possibility or intention of a coup d’état and in any case, seeing how the federal government has moved these years we could be closer to a self-coupwhich I personally also think is unlikely.
So that there is a coup, there has to be an overthrow of the legitimate government driven by a military uprising, that is valid from that of Huerta that overthrew Madero, to the coups of Pinochet or Videla in the 70s, in Chile and Argentina, respectively. In all of these cases, and in many more, it is key that the armed forces ignore constitutional power and impose a government by force, which may be led by the military or civilians. That scenario does not exist in today’s Mexico.
Never, in the Contemporary Mexicothere was a possibility or a serious hypothesis of a coup, the Mexican armed forces never operated to ignore the government in power. The Mexican armed forces are professionals and do their duty: they have not been tempted to seize power. Of course I don’t realize it now either and I don’t know anyone who knows the armed forces who is raising it.
The armed forces are guarantors of the constitution and legality and as long as there is a government, this one or any other, that is framed in that condition, they will respect it and give it their loyalty. Claudia wins or Xóchitl wins.
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#Risks #technical #real #blows
