rose prices Rough, the main driver ofeconomies Gulfafter the Russian military operations in Ukraine in February and maintained its height, which gave a significant impetus toeconomies Region.
A Reuters poll from April 12-22 expectedmiddle overall growth ofeconomies GCC countries GulfThe six-month growth rate is 5.9 percent this year, the fastest pace since 2012.
Khadija Haq, chief economist at Emirates NBD, said: economies GCC countries Gulf. We are off to a relatively strong start to 2022. The hydrocarbon sectors have benefited from more Produce oil Since the beginning of the year, the production of oil Crude oil 12% in the first quarter of 2021 for the United Arab Emirates and 19% in the same period for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
“The survey data for the first quarter of the year indicates a strong expansion in the non-oil sectors as well, with strong growth in business activity and new work in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar,” she added.
For Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy and exporter oil The world’s leading crude oil, about 80 percent of respondents, or 17 out of 22 participants, raised their expectations compared to the previous poll in January.
They expected growth at 6.3 percent in 2022, up from 5.7 percent expected three months ago, which is followed by a decline to 3.2 percent next year. If that happens, the growth in 2022 will be the fastest since 2011 when it reachedmiddle price oil About $111 a barrel.
The expected growth in Kuwait was 6.4%, and in the UAE, 5.6%, to be the fastest in about a decade. Expected growth for Qatar, Oman and Bahrain came at around 4 percent, the fastest in several years.
But when asked about the two biggest dangers ofrisk which faces economies GCC countries GulfThis year, ten of the 12 economists who answered an additional question said they were up inflation The global economic slowdown.
rate rose inflation in most economies GCC countries Gulfj in the past few months against the backdrop of rising prices Food caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Although it is modest compared to many other countries, it is expected to rise inflation In the countries of the Cooperation Council GulfIt has increased to more than two percent this year, with the highest rate comingmiddle Expectations are for Qatar’s share at 3.5 percent and the lowest for Saudi Arabia at 2.5 percent.
“In the face of risingprices Global Commodities and Food, we have revised our inflation forecasts for 2022 for the GCC region GulfIt will be about 3.5 percent of about 2.5 percent.”
He added, “Since the GCC countries GulfAs it imports 85 percent of its food, the constant upward pressure on prices global food could pose a challenge to policy makers in the region.”
The uncertainty caused by the conflict in Ukraine could also have a negative impact on the global economy that is still recovering from the effects of the pandemic.
The International Monetary Fund last week lowered its forecast for global growth for 2022 due to the impact of the war, describing inflation It is a clear and present danger.
The countries of the Cooperation Council will face GulfJPY, which relies heavily on energy export earnings, has seen weaker demand due to the economic slowdown, especially in China, one of the world’s largest importers. oil and gas in the world.
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