Returning to the sanctions regime in Venezuela seems inevitable and necessary. At least that's what he thinks the former United States ambassador to that country Patrick Duddy, today an advisor for international affairs at Duke University.
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In a writing for the Latin American Advisor published periodically by the Inter-American Dialogue Thinking Center, Duddy affirms that Nicolás Maduro's failure to comply with the Barbados agreement and the promise of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to return to sanctions if candidates are prevented from participating seems to leave no other way.
“The decision of the Supreme Court of Venezuela to confirm the ban on the presidential candidacy of María Corina Machado was totally predictable. Since Machado emerged as the winner of the opposition presidential primaries on October 22 with more than 90 percent support, the regime has walked away from the agreement it signed in Barbados on October 17 to proceed with elections this year. If the court's decision is not overturned, it will not be possible to hold presidential elections that meet even the most minimal international standards,” says Duddy.
(You can read: Why is Joe Biden's diplomatic bet with Venezuela on a tightrope?)
The Venezuelan opponent María Corina Machado.
According to the former official, although Maduro felt like a winner after the agreement reached with the opposition, The very high participation in the opposition primary elections and the high level of organization that his rivals have been showing set off alarms, so since then he has been attacking Machado and making it clear that he does not intend to comply with an agreement that could remove him from power..
“In a Senate hearing on October 31, Secretary of State Blinken said the administration was prepared to “withdraw” sanctions if the Maduro regime “violated the agreement” with the opposition. The Barbados agreement included a commitment to allow both sides to choose their own candidates. The opposition overwhelmingly elected Machado. The Maduro regime has clearly violated its commitment. Consequently, it seems inevitable and necessary for the United States to begin imposing sanctions,” says the former diplomat.
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Machado's success in building a broad coalition is precisely the reason why the regime has reaffirmed the ban on his candidacy.
Duddy also doesn't think the opposition is likely to support an alternative candidate. And he cites two reasons: “First, unifying the opposition in Venezuela has always been difficult. Machado's success in building a broad coalition is precisely the reason why the regime has reaffirmed the ban on his candidacy. Second, , the opposition is likely to believe that switching to another candidate would make it complicit in the regime's bad faith. It also understands that supporting a substitute candidate would be tantamount to losing any hope of winning the elections.”
David Smile, a professor at Tulane University and former Wola, disagrees with this latter conclusion.
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The polls in Venezuela – says Smile – “make a couple of things clear. Firstly, Machado is without a doubt the preferred opposition candidate among Venezuelans. Secondly, they believe that he should fight against his electoral disqualification. But in third place, if it is clear that he cannot run, they prefer an alternative candidate to a repeat of the electoral boycotts of the past. Most people voted for Machado not because of a deep commitment to him or his political positions, but because he seemed like the person who could bring about the change they desperately sought. Without a doubt, they would be willing to change to another candidate who presents the same opportunity.”
The key, this analyst believes, is in Washington because if it insists that “it's either Machado or nothing,” it will be very difficult to unify the opposition into a candidate who can pick up their flags and challenge the regime in the elections.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL Tiempo correspondent
Washington
On Twitter @sergom68
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