As Azerbaijan has launched a new military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, diplomatic tensions between Armenia and Russia are reaching new heights.
Yerevan – Relations between Armenia and its traditional strategic partner Russia are deteriorating noticeably. The arrival of American soldiers in Armenia to take part in a peacekeeping exercise with Armenian soldiers to prepare them for participation in international peacekeeping missions is the latest episode in the dispute between the allies. The comparatively small exercise – involving 85 American and 175 Armenian soldiers – is the latest in a series of what the Russian Foreign Ministry describes as “unfriendly actions” by Armenia.
Tensions have escalated in the last two weeks as the Armenian government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has taken several demonstrative steps to criticize and distance itself from Russia. Yerevan’s announcement that it would host US soldiers for an unprecedented joint military exercise was commented on by the Russian news agency TASS with the words: “Pashinyan is changing the country’s policy to move closer to the West.”
Armenia delivered humanitarian aid to Ukraine – to Putin’s anger
Among the measures taken in recent weeks by Russia as a provocation to its traditional ally was Armenia recently sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine for the first time. Pashinyan’s wife Anna Hakobian delivered this personally as part of a photo session with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Armenia has so far refrained from making any statements about the war in Ukraine. Armenia neither criticized nor supported the Russian invasion. The Russian Foreign Ministry responded to Hakobian’s trip by summoning the Armenian ambassador to Moscow for consultations and accusing the country of supporting the “Nazi regime in Kiev.”
In addition, at the beginning of September, Pashinyan submitted the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court to parliament for ratification, although Russia has been opposing it for months. The background: Armenia wants to be able to sue Azerbaijan at the International Criminal Court for the mistreatment of Armenians. Ratification of the statute would, however, mean that Armenia would, at least in theory, be obliged to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit, as the Court had issued an arrest warrant against him in March.
Armenia’s prime minister calls dependence on Russia a “strategic mistake”
Almost at the same time, Pashinyan criticized Russia in an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, calling dependence on Russia a “strategic mistake.” The Prime Minister particularly noted the almost complete dependence of Armenia’s security architecture on Russia. As a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of post-Soviet states, Armenia has contractually guaranteed support. However, Armenia repeatedly felt abandoned by Russia at important moments, mainly in its confrontation with Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenia’s security architecture was 99.999% linked to Russia, including in the logic of procurement of weapons and ammunition, but today we see that Russia itself needs weapons and ammunition, and in this situation it is understandable that the Russian Federation, even if they it wanted, could not meet Armenia’s security needs.
Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited by a majority of Armenians, declared its independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 and Armenia occupied the region. In September 2020, Azerbaijan began retaking the occupied territories. A ceasefire brokered by Russia has been in effect since November 2020, but it is regularly broken – most recently today (September 19) by a renewed attack by Azerbaijan. In 2021, Azerbaijani forces then attacked Armenia itself.
“Armenia has invested 30 years of its independence – I would even say 200 years of its recent history – in the firm belief that when the time comes and the need arises, Russia would fulfill its strategic commitments and defend Armenia against any foreign aggression. This did not happen in 2020, nor in 2021, nor in 2022,” foreign policy professor Vahram Ter-Matevosyan of the American University of Armenia told CNN.
Russian peacekeepers repeatedly failed to intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh
Since the end of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, a 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping contingent has been stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, Russian peacekeepers have proven unable or unwilling to counter repeated Azerbaijani attempts to conquer new territory or improve their positions. Armenian requests for intervention were repeatedly not responded to. Among other things, the peacekeepers watched idly as Azerbaijan cut off supplies from Armenia to the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
At the same time, Armenia repeatedly had to bow to Russian pressure. In 2013, at the last minute, it canceled the association agreement with the EU that had been negotiated for years. Instead, the country joined the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.
Armenia has diversified its foreign policy in several directions
In order to diversify its foreign policy, Armenia has sought various new partners. After Russia stopped supplying arms following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the country turned to India. Armenia also maintains close relations with Iran. While these relations do not worry Moscow, relations with Western states are more delicate. This is not only reflected in the military exercises with the USA. Armenia has also welcomed European Union border monitors as the EU has taken a leading role in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve their conflict. In addition, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen was hired as a lobbyist, who in this role advocated for American security guarantees and European military aid.
Azerbaijan declares that it has informed Turkey and Russia about the military operation
Armenia’s dealings with Russia are viewed as risky. Moscow has several levers to exert pressure on Armenia. The country is heavily dependent on remittances from Armenian guest workers in Russia. In addition, Armenia sources almost all of its natural gas from Russia. Finally, the Russian peacekeeping force continues to play an important security role in Nagorno-Karabakh. In the renewed conflict with Azerbaijan, the Ministry of Defense there claims to have informed not only Turkey – a supporter of Azerbaijan – but also Russia about the military operation.
Russia itself said it was in contact with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and was pushing for negotiations to resolve the Karabakh conflict, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. He added that Moscow considers ensuring the safety of civilians to be the most important issue. During the conflict three years ago, Russia negotiated a ceasefire with the two parties to the conflict.
Experts have different views on Russia’s motive
Some analysts attribute the failure to honor the Russian-brokered ceasefire to Russia being distracted by its massive invasion of Ukraine. Others believe the situation is partly due to Russia trying to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan on its side at the same time – a task made impossible by Azerbaijan’s ongoing aggression. Marie Dumoulin, director of the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN that since the 2020 war, Russia has been very cautious about choosing between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Specifically, Russia’s passive stance means that it has chosen Azerbaijan.
Dumoulin also pointed to the growing ties between Moscow and Baku, boosted by personal ties between Putin and Azerbaijan’s long-time President Ilham Aliyev. Pashinyan, on the other hand, is not a political leader that Vladimir Putin values. He came to power through a revolution. He is democratic, reform-oriented and against corruption, while Aliyev is an autocrat. (PaPel)
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