The Government of Ecuador is trying for the second time in a year to ask people about legal and constitutional reforms on security issues, in search of tools to confront the growing violence in the country. This Sunday, Ecuadorians go to the polls to decide if they want the Armed Forces to complement the work of the Police in security policy, expanding the powers of the Army to remain on the streets, the extradition of criminals, as well as reforms in the system of Justice. But there are also questions that have generated controversy, such as whether the country recognizes international arbitration for investments and commercial matters and allowing hourly work.
Of the eleven questions, eight are related to security. The first question is an amendment to the Constitution so that the Armed Forces can act together with the National Police. A consultation similar to the one that Guillermo Lasso proposed in 2023 and which won the “no”. The justification remains the same, mobilizing the military to the streets in the face of the advance of organized crime, without it being necessary to declare a state of exception.
Although currently, under the decree of internal armed conflict issued by Daniel Noboa on January 9, the military continues to be in charge of citizen security. They have carried out 237,000 operations, in which they have arrested 300 people for terrorism. “The aim is to give the military the constitutional power to assume the design and policy of citizen security, something that is now exclusive to the National Police,” says Luis Carlos Córdova, security analyst. And that “may include the possibility of expanding the mining and oil frontier that already generates conflicts in some communities,” he adds.
Doubts about the strategy and role of the Armed Forces in public security policy persist when, despite the military presence in the streets and the thousands of operations they carry out, violence has increased in the last month. Massacres and violent crimes have occurred again, including the murder of three mayors. But the president has promised to “build a lasting peace,” he said in a meeting in the Amazon, when he called to participate in the popular consultation. “It will be the hardest blow we can give to the terrorists,” the president continued. “They are going to vote so that there is protection of the military everywhere,” he added. But in a country with multiple crises, with enormous anxiety and uncertainty, is consultation the solution to the insecurity crisis that is worsening day by day? For Luis Carlos Córdova, political analyst, the consultation has objectives linked more to political and economic interests than to true solutions to the problems of Ecuadorians.
And citizens also understand this game of politics. There is a pattern of behavior of the electorate in the 14 consultations and referendums that the country has had in its history, analyzes Stephanie Macías, political scientist. The thing is that the times that the “yes” has won, the current government has enjoyed more than 40% popularity. “So we not only talk about the context, nor what the consultation contains, but about the trust and legitimacy that the citizen wants to give with the vote to the Government in power,” says Macías. Córdova agrees with this, but she adds that “the consultation must also be interpreted as an advertising policy that the Government requires to legitimize its actions during these four months and what it will do in the future.” Especially at this moment, in which the president has not left the campaign platform and is working towards reelection in 2025. “The plebiscite catapults and gives oxygen to the president to see whether or not he can present himself in good conditions to re-election,” says Córdova. But the president, who has already said that he will seek the Presidency, has responded to his followers that we must go step by step: “First let's win the consultation.”
For the analyst, another sensitive question is whether the country recognizes international arbitration to resolve investment, contractual and commercial disputes. “This is central for economic and fundamentally transnational groups. “There are billions of dollars that the country would have to pay in lawsuits that it has already lost,” explains Córdova. The ballot includes another repeated question from the previous Government, which won the “no”, and it is about the extradition of Ecuadorians for crimes of transnational drug trafficking and terrorism.
Daniel Noboa seemed to have paved the way for the majority of the population to give him their support in this new plebiscite. He boasted of a high popularity of almost 70% approval in March, he had increased optimism in the people, he achieved governability with the political groups of the Assembly. He seemed to have managed to contain the violence in the first weeks after the state of emergency and internal armed conflict decrees, and even the assault on the Mexican Embassy to capture Jorge Glas seemed to have brought him no major consequences internally in the country. However, the three-point increase in VAT, which has skyrocketed the prices of the basic basket, the energy crisis that has left the population without electricity for up to ten hours, the increase in violent crimes, crimes such as extortion and kidnappings. , have begun to wear down the image of the president.
Even if the president wins the referendum, he faces the serious problem of “satisfying the expectations he has built,” emphasizes Córdova. “For example, that the problem of unemployment will be resolved by approving the hourly contract, or that the militarization model will solve the problems of insecurity,” he adds.
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